If you thought you would get a forewarning about a potential asteroid impacting the Earth – think again!

Asteroid

Comet Neowise, a 3-mile-wide chunk of space ice, is rocketing past our planet, creating a spectacle in the night: a brilliant ball of white light with long, colorful tails. The comet is a benign and beautiful sight, but it highlights a global vulnerability. Tens of thousands of potentially dangerous objects regularly careen past Earth undetected, and some of them inevitably crash into it. Comets — balls of space ice and dust — almost never pose a threat to Earth, but asteroids and meteors (smaller chunks of rock) come close more often. Although impacts are extremely rare, a space rock big enough to destroy a city (or worse) could hurtle towards Earth at any time, and scientists might not see it until it’s far too late.

Nobody even knew Comet Neowise existed until a NASA space telescope discovered it approaching just three months ago. The spacecraft was scanning for asteroids and comets (balls of space ice and dust) that fly too close to Earth. The mission is called the Near-Earth Object Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (NEOWISE) — that’s where the new comet gets its name.

A large asteroid impacted the Earth in March with no warning – and most people still haven’t heard about it.

Many “near-Earth objects” (NEOs) do not cross any telescope’s line of sight, and several potentially dangerous asteroids have snuck up on Earth in recent years. “Luck is not a plan,” Richard Binzel, an asteroid researcher and professor of planetary sciences at MIT, told Business Insider in September. In case scientists discover such an asteroid approaching Earth again, NASA has considered some ways to push it off its collision course: slamming a spacecraft into it, detonating an explosion near it, or firing lasers that heat and vaporize the rock enough to change its orbit. But that takes time and the technology is unproven. What if nobody spots the asteroid until it’s too late?

In recent years, scientists have missed plenty of large, dangerous objects approaching Earth. “We feel we’ve only found about a third of the population of asteroids that are out there that could represent an impact hazard to the Earth,” Johnson said. In 2013, a meteor measuring about 65 feet in diameter and traveling at 40,000 mph entered the atmosphere and exploded over Chelyabinsk in central Russia. The blast sent out a shock wave that broke windows and damaged buildings across the region, injuring more than 1,400 people.  –Business Insider

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Geology: Iceland’s most active volcano is likely headed for another eruption

Iceland

Glacial volcanoes sound like an oxymoron. But Iceland’s Vatnajökull ice cap, Europe’s largest by volume, covers many active volcanoes, including the country’s most frequently erupting one, Grímsvötn. Nine years after its last eruption in 2011, which closed Icelandic airspace, Grímsvötn appears poised for yet another, according to the Icelandic Meteorological Office’s (IMO). A Grímsvötn eruption—occurring roughly every 5-10 years—blasts through the glacial ice enclosing the volcano and the magma-ice interactions create a stunning explosion. “The lava melts the ice, it flashes into steam. There is a tremendous amount of energy being released in split seconds,” Ronni Grapenthin, a geophysicist at the University of Alaska, described to GlacierHub. Grímsvötn is also infamous as the source of the seven-month long Laki fissure eruption in 1783, which caused a famine that claimed 20 percent of Iceland’s population and lowered Northern Hemisphere temperatures by an estimated 1°C.

While scientists are fairly certain another eruption is coming, forecasting the timing, magnitude and nature of eruptions is challenging because “each volcano is different and they behave differently, and you can have different behavior from one eruption to the other,” said Sigrun Hreinsdottir, a geodetic scientist at GNS Science in New Zealand. However, because Grímsvötn erupts so frequently, scientists see patterns that suggest another eruption is imminent. “Currently we have a state of the volcano which is very similar to the pre-eruptive conditions before 2011 and 2004 [eruptions],” Benedikt Ofeigsson, a geoscientist at the IMO, told GlacierHub.

Iceland 2

A team of scientists spanning Alaska to Iceland to New Zealand is carefully monitoring Grímsvötn. A high-precision GPS on the ground measures volcanic deformation—the movement of the ground—in real time. As magma flows into the volcano from below, the ground expands outwards from the magma chamber, like a balloon. According to Ofeigsson, Grímsvötn is “pretty much inflated to the same point as prior to 2011 [eruption] so it’s showing all the signs of an eruption well within the next month or year.” An additional piece of information suggests an impending Grímsvötn eruption: gas measurements. When magma nears the surface, the gases originally dissolved in the magma escape. “It’s a lot like opening a soda bottle. When you release the pressure, the gases come out,” said Terry Plank, a volcanologist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. Since 2012, the IMO has periodically made gas measurements at Grímsvötn, but in early June, they “measured very high concentrations of SO2, CO2 and H2,” which Ofeiggson noted are unusual for Iceland. These measurements indicate that an eruption is near because the magma is just below the surface.

“When the volcano is ready to erupt, the eruption can be triggered by the flood,” Ofeigsson added. Grímsvötn has “a hair-trigger sensitivity to pressure,” so the pressure release from the removal of the lake water can start the eruption, explained Dave McGarvie, a volcanologist at Lancaster University. Therefore, for the first time, scientists are monitoring Grímsvötn’s subglacial lake level in real time. Because jökulhlaups triggered many past Grímsvötn eruptions, including in 2004, scientists expect the next eruption will also follow the flood. Despite the short window of warning—and Grímsvötn’s history of devastating eruptions—the next eruption is not expected to be bad. Every 150-200 years, Grímsvötn has a large eruption. Since the last big one was in 2011, scientists expect the upcoming eruption to be fairly small.  –Physics

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China’s deadly floods leave 40 million people displaced

China Rainstorms

CHINA — Relentless heavy rains that began pummeling China last month is flooding more areas along the Yangtze River and causing anxiety further along the 2.3-km Three Gorges Dam, the world’s largest hydroelectric power plant. Already, 40 million people have been uprooted. Now, the dam 300 km west of Wuhan is threatening to burst and flood the first city to be hammered by the novel coronavirus. More than 400 rivers have overflowed and authorities estimate the economic toll has already reached 64.4 billion yuan ($9.2 billion).  –AN

The 1,000-kilometer river is a major waterway in China, is facing grim flooding risks over the next three days for parts of Shanxi, Henan, Shandong, Anhui, and Jiangsu provinces. Massive flooding upstream on the Yangtze River has also caused concern that the Three Gorges Dam, the largest hydroelectric power station in the world, is being pushed to the limit under the strain of massive flows of water. Many regions along the Yangtze River have flooded in the past week due to torrential rains this monsoon season. At the moment, at least 400 Yangtze tributary rivers have overflowed, with at least a hundred dead and 15 million people evacuated from their homes in July alone. Rainfall totals in China are about 12% higher than the last monsoon season. The economic damage is already in the billions of dollars, according to government estimates the previous week.   We noted last week rising floodwaters on the Yangtze River had caused fears the Three Gorges Dam has failed to prevent flooding downstream.  –Zero Hedge

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Health Watch: Squirrel tests positive for the bubonic plague in Colorado

Bubonic Plague

Public health officials have announced that a squirrel in Colorado has tested positive for the bubonic plague. The town of Morrison, Colorado, in Jefferson County, which is just west of Denver, made the startling announcement saying that the squirrel is the first case of plague in the county. “Plague is an infectious disease caused by the bacteria Yersinia pestis, and can be contracted by humans and household animals if proper precautions are not taken,” officials from Jefferson County Public Health (JCPH) said in a statement released to the public.

It is possible for humans to be infected with the bubonic plague through bites from infected fleas and by direct contact with blood or tissues of infected animals such as a cough or a bite. Jefferson County Public Health said that cats are highly susceptible to the plague from things like flea bites, a rodent scratch or bite, and ingesting an infected rodent. Cats can die if not treated quickly with antibiotics after contact with the plague.

Officials also said that dogs are not as susceptible to the plague as cats are but still may pick up and carry plague-infected rodent fleas. Any pet owner who suspects that their pet is ill should contact a veterinarian immediately. “Symptoms of plague may include sudden onset of high fever, chills, headache, nausea and extreme pain and swelling of lymph nodes, occurring within two to seven days after exposure. Plague can be effectively treated with antibiotics when diagnosed early. Anyone experiencing these symptoms should consult a physician,” said JCPH.

Risk for contracting the bubonic plague is extremely low as long as the proper precautions are taken and JCPH published a list of them including eliminating all sources of food, shelter and access for wild animals around the home, not feeding wild animals, maintaining a litter and trash-free yard to reduce wild animal habitats, having people and pets should avoid all contact with sick or dead wild animals and rodents, using precaution when handling sick pets and having them examined by a veterinarian, consulting with a veterinarian about flea and tick control for pets and keeping pets from roaming freely outside the home where they may prey on wild animals and bring the disease home with them.   –ABC News

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Earth-Sun ideal combination for intelligent life, once thought commonplace in the universe – now determined by science to be ‘extremely extremely’ rare

Earth Sun

A new study suggests that there are around 700 quintillion planets in the universe, but only one like Earth. It’s a revelation that’s both beautiful and terrifying at the same time. Astrophysicist Erik Zackrisson from Uppsala University in Sweden arrived at this staggering figure — a 7 followed by 20 zeros  — with the aid of a computer model that simulated the universe’s evolution following the Big Bang. Zackrisson’s model combined information about known exoplanets with our understanding of the early universe and the laws of physics to recreate the past 13.8 billion years.

Zackrisson found that Earth appears to have been dealt a fairly lucky hand. In a galaxy like the Milky Way, for example, most of the planets Zackrisson’s model generated looked very different than Earth — they were larger, older and very unlikely to support life. The study can be found on the pre-print server arXiv, and has been submitted to The Astrophysical Journal.  –Discovery

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