October 2016 – SPACE – A large space rock is going to come fairly close to Earth later tonight. Fortunately, it’s not going to hit Earth, something astronomers are sure of thanks in part to a new tool NASA is developing for detecting potentially dangerous asteroids. The tool is a computer program called Scout, and it’s being tested at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, Calif. Think of Scout as a celestial intruder alert system. It’s constantly scanning data from telescopes to see if there are any reports of so-called Near Earth Objects. If it finds one, it makes a quick calculation of whether Earth is at risk, and instructs other telescopes to make follow-up observations to see if any risk is real.
NASA pays for several telescopes around the planet to scan the skies on a nightly basis, looking for these objects. “The NASA surveys are finding something like at least five asteroids every night,” says astronomer Paul Chodas of JPL. But then the trick is to figure out which new objects might hit Earth. “When a telescope first finds a moving object, all you know is it’s just a dot, moving on the sky,” says Chodas. “You have no information about how far away it is. The more telescopes you get pointed at an object, the more data you get, and the more you’re sure you are how big it is and which way it’s headed. But sometimes you don’t have a lot of time to make those observations. Objects can come close to the Earth shortly after discovery, sometimes one day, two days, even hours in some cases,” says JPL’s Davide Farnocchia. “The main goal of Scout is to speed up the confirmation process.”
The rock whizzing past Earth tonight was discovered on the night of Oct. 25-26 by the NASA-funded Panoramic Survey Telescope & Rapid Response System (Pan-STARRS) on Maui, Hawaii. Within a few hours, preliminary details about the object appeared on a web page maintained by the Minor Planet Center at the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory. Scout did a quick analysis of the preliminary details and determined that the object was headed for Earth, but would miss us by about 310,000 miles.
Additional observations by three telescopes, one operated by the Steward Observatory, another called Spacewatch, and a third at the Tenagra Observatories, confirmed the object would miss Earth by a comfortable margin. Astronomers were also able to estimate the size of the object: somewhere between 5 meters and 25 meters across. In case you’re interested, full details about the object’s trajectory can be found here. Scout is still in the testing phase. It should become fully operational later this year. Now Scout is mainly dealing with smallish, very nearby objects. Complementing Scout is another system which is already operational called Sentry.
Sentry’s job is to identify objects large enough to wipe out a major city that might hit Earth in the next hundred years. “Our goal right now is to find 90 percent of the 140 meter asteroids and larger,” says Chodas, but right now he estimates they’re only able to find 25-30 percent of the estimated population of objects that size. That number should get better when a new telescope being built in Chile called the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope comes on line. NASA is also considering a space telescope devoted to searching for asteroids. OK, so let’s say you find one of these monster rocks heading for Earth. What then? Astronomer Ed Lu says there is something you can do. He’s CEO of an organization called B612. It’s devoted to dealing with asteroid threats.
“If you know well in advance, and by well in advance I mean 10 years, 20 years, 30 years in advance which is something we can do, “ says Lu, “then you can divert such an asteroid by just giving it a tiny nudge when it’s many billions of miles from hitting the Earth.” NASA and the European Space Agency are developing a mission to practice doing just that. Lu says in the last decade people who should worry about such things have begun to make concrete plans for dealing with dangerous asteroids. “I believe in the next 10 to 15 years we’ll actually be at the point where we as humans can say, ‘Hey, we’re safe from this danger of large asteroids hitting the Earth,’” he says. In the meantime, we’ll just have to hope that luck is on our side. –NPR
October 2016– ITALY – A pair of strong aftershocks shook central Italy late Wednesday, crumbling churches and buildings, knocking out power and sending panicked residents into the rain-drenched streets just two months after a powerful earthquake killed nearly 300 people. But hours after the temblors hit, there were no reports of serious injuries or signs of people trapped in rubble, said the head of Italy’s civil protection agency, Fabrizio Curcio. A handful of people were treated for slight injuries or anxiety at area hospitals in the most affected regions of Umbria and Le Marche, he said.
“All told, the information so far is that it’s not as catastrophic” as it could have been, Curcio said. The temblors were actually aftershocks to the Aug. 24 quake that struck a broad swath of central Italy, demolishing buildings in three towns and their hamlets, seismologists said. Several towns this time around also suffered serious damage, with homes in the epicenter of Visso spilling out into the street. The first struck at 7:10 p.m. and carried a magnitude of 5.4. But the second one was eight times stronger at 6.1, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Because many residents had already left their homes with plans to spend the night in their cars or elsewhere, they weren’t home when the second aftershock hit two hours later, possibly saving lives, officials said.
“It was an unheard-of violence. Many houses collapsed,” the mayor of hard-hit Ussita, Marco Rinaldi, told Sky TG24. “The facade of the church collapsed. By now I have felt many earthquakes. This is the strongest of my life. It was something terrible.” Rinaldi said two elderly people were rescued from their home, where they were trapped, and appeared to be in good condition. Some 200 people in Ussita were planning to sleep in the streets, given the impossibility of putting up tents so late at night.
Calling it “apocalyptic,” he said the town and its hamlets were “finished.” A church crumbled in the ancient Perugian town of Norcia, famed for its Benedictine monastery and its cured meats. A bell-tower damaged on Aug. 24 fell and crushed a building in Camerino, the ANSA news agency said. Elsewhere, buildings were damaged, though many were in zones that were declared off-limits after the Aug. 24 quake that flattened parts of three towns. “We’re without power, waiting for emergency crews,” said Mauro Falcucci, the mayor of Castelsantangelo sul Nera, near the epicenter. Speaking to Sky TG24, he said: “We can’t see anything. It’s tough. Really tough.”
He said some buildings had collapsed, but that there were no immediate reports of injuries in his community. He added that darkness and a downpour were impeding a full accounting. Schools were closed in several towns Thursday as a precaution and a handful of hospitals were evacuated after suffering damage. Premier Matteo Renzi, who cut short a visit to southern Italy to monitor the quake response, tweeted “all of Italy is embracing those hit once again.”
Italy’s national vulcanology center said the first quake had an epicenter in the Macerata area, near Perugia in the quake-prone Apennine Mountain chain. The U.S. Geological Survey put the epicenter near Visso, 170 kilometers northeast of Rome, and said it had a depth of some 10 kilometers (six miles). The second aftershock struck two hours later at 9:18 p.m. with a similar depth. Experts say even relatively modest quakes that have shallow depths can cause significant damage because the seismic waves are closer to the surface. But seismologist Gianluca Valensise said a 10-kilometer depth is within the norm for an Apennine temblor.
The Aug. 24 quake that destroyed the hilltop village of Amatrice and other nearby towns had a depth of about 10 kilometers. Amatrice Mayor Sergio Pirozzi said residents felt Wednesday’s aftershocks but “We are thanking God that there are no dead and no injured.” The original Aug. 24, 6.2-magnitude quake was still 41 percent stronger than even the second aftershock. Wednesday’s temblors were felt from Perugia in Umbria to the capital Rome and as far north as Veneto. It also shook the central Italian city of L’Aquila, which was struck by a deadly quake in 2009. The mayor of L’Aquila, however, said there were no immediate reports of damage there.
A section of a major state highway north of Rome, the Salaria, was closed near Arquata del Tronto as a precaution because of a quake-induced landslide, said a spokeswoman for the civil protection agency, Ornella De Luca. The mayor of Arquata del Tronto, Aleandro Petrucci, said the aftershocks felt stronger than the August quake, which devastated parts of his town. But he said there were no reports of injuries to date and that the zone hardest hit by the last quake remained uninhabitable. “We don’t worry because there is no one in the red zone, if something fell, walls fell,” he said.
In Rome, some 230 kilometers (145 miles) southwest from the epicenter, centuries-old palazzi shook and officials at the Foreign Ministry evacuated the building. The quakes were actually aftershocks of the magnitude 6.2 earthquake from two months ago. Because they were so close to the surface, they have the potential to cause more shaking and more damage, “coupled with infrastructure that’s vulnerable to shaking,” said U.S. Geological Survey seismologist Paul Earle.
“They have a lot of old buildings that weren’t constructed at a time with modern seismic codes,” he said. Given the size, depth and location of the quakes, the USGS estimates that about 24 million people likely felt at least weak shaking. This original quake was about 20 kilometers (12 miles) northwest of the original shock, which puts it on the northern edge of the aftershock sequence and two months is normal for aftershocks, Earle said. –Seattle Times
The massive volcanic dome is one of the largest ever discovered. It is higher than the tallest building on Earth. If this magmatic reservoir ever erupts, it’s going to be apocalyptic.
October 2016 – CENTRAL ANDES – An enormous dome has been discovered growing in the Central Andes above the world’s largest active magma store. Found in the Altiplano-Puna Plateau – the second highest plateau on the planet – the dome stretches more than a kilometer high (3,280 feet), making it 172 meters taller than the world’s tallest building in Dubai. Researchers say this massive structure is the result of an injection of magma from below. “The dome is the Earth’s response to having this huge low-density magma chamber pumped into the crust,’ says one of the team, Noah Finnegan from the University of California, Santa Cruz.
How did we all miss a massive dome of Earth rising a kilometer above the surface? It just so happens to be hidden within the Altiplano-Puna Plateau – a high, dry region, littered with volcanoes, that extends for some 2,000 km along the Central Andes, with an average height of 4,000 meters. The Central Andes constitutes an even larger plateau, encompassing southern Ecuador, northwestern Bolivia, and most of Peru. Together, the Central Andes, Southern Andes, and Patagonia make up the Andes, the longest continental mountain range in the world. So it’s easy to see how something could elude us in the middle of all that. Back in 2014, the researchers used seismic imaging – a tool that bounces sound waves off underground rock structures – to reveal the enormous size and extent of the Altiplano-Puna magma body.
They found that this massive zone of melted rock is a whopping 11 kilometers thick and 200 kilometers in diameter – much larger than previous estimates. They’ve since gone back to take a closer look at the internal structure of the Altiplano-Puna plateau, and have identified a kilometer-high topographical dome, with the dormant Uturuncu Volcano sitting right in the center of it. “People had known about the magma body, but it had not been quantified that well,” says one of the researchers, Jonathan Perkins. “In the new study, we were able to show a tight spatial coupling between that magma body and this big, kilometer-high dome.”
The dome is located within the Altiplano-Puna Volcanic Complex, which sits in the southern part of the Altiplano-Puna Plateau. Roughly 10 million years ago, this was one of the most volcanically active places on the planet, and was shaped by a series of super-volcano eruptions over several thousand years. Since the 1990s, satellite surveys have been conducted in the area, and have shown consistent uplifting of the surface – in some places at a surprisingly rapid rate. The Uturuncu volcano at the heart of the newly discovered dome has been rising by about 1 centimeter every year, and the team took it upon themselves to figure out why.
“We think the ongoing uplift is from the magma body,” says Perkins. “The jury is still out on exactly what’s causing it, but we don’t think it’s related to a super-volcano.” The researchers suspect that activity in two tectonic plates in the region – the South American continental plate and the Nazca oceanic plate – has allowed magma to seep into the crust and feed the volcanoes. Meanwhile, water is also being released by this activity, which changes the melting temperature of the mantle rock in the lower Nazca oceanic plate, prompting it to melt and rise into the overlapping South American continental plate.
So the same process that once created our continents has been fueling the growth of this enormous dome. “This is giving us a glimpse into the factory where continents get made,” says Perkins. “These big magmatic systems form during periods called magmatic flare-ups when lots of melt gets injected into Earth’s crust. It’s analogous to the process that created the Sierra Nevada 90 million years ago, but we’re seeing it now in real time.” –Science Alert
October 2016 – NARVACAN, Philippines – “At least eight people were killed after Super Typhoon Haima smashed into the northern Philippines with ferocious wind and rains, flooding towns and forcing thousands to flee although it slightly weakened Thursday after slamming into a mountain range on its way to the South China Sea, officials said. Haima’s blinding winds and rain had rekindled fears and memories from the catastrophe wrought by Typhoon Haiyan in 2013, but there were no immediate reports of any major damage amid spotty communications and power outages in several provinces. Thousands of villagers were moved to emergency shelters as the typhoon approached.
Two construction workers died when a landslide buried their shanty in La Trinidad town in the mountain province of Benguet, officials said, while two villagers drowned in floodwaters in Ifugao province, near Benguet. The typhoon slammed into shore in Cagayan province late Wednesday, and lashed the mountainous province of Apayao at dawn with slightly weaker sustained winds of 205 kilometers (127 miles) per hour and gusts of 285 kph (176 mph). It was blowing northwestward at 25 kph (15 mph) toward the tobacco-growing Ilocos Norte, the last province before it exits toward the South China Sea, according to forecasters.
In Narvacan town in northern Ilocos Sur province, rice fields resembled a brown lake under waist-high floodwaters. Despite the still-strong wind and rain, government workers have started clearing roads blocked with toppled trees and all kinds of debris. “We can’t go out because the wind is so intense, trees are being forced down,” Councilor Elisa Arugay told DZMM radio late Wednesday from Camasi village in Cagayan province. Officials were concerned because the powerful typhoon struck at night and was expected to hit towns and cities amid power outages. The government’s weather agency lowered it storm warning to level five, down from the highest level of six.
Many of the provinces hit by the storm were still recovering from a powerful typhoon that killed two people and displaced tens of thousands of villagers last weekend. Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, on an official visit to China, urged people in the typhoon’s path to heed orders by disaster agencies, including abandoning coastal communities prone to storm surges. Duterte is on a state visit to China and is to fly home Friday. “We only pray that we be spared destruction such as in the previous past which brought agony and suffering to our people, but we are ready,” Duterte told a news conference. About 20 typhoons and storms lash the Philippines each year, adding to the many burdens in a country that is also threatened by earthquakes and volcanic eruptions and considered one of the world’s most disaster-prone nations. In November 2013, Typhoon Haiyan struck the central Philippines with ferocious power, leaving more than 7,300 people dead and displacing more than 5 million others after leveling entire villages. –Duquoin
October 2016 – SPACE – Solar storms threaten Earth about every 100 years and experts warn we are overdue. Now, researchers have released the first ever map that shows which areas of the US are at high risk of being hit by the next intense storm. The map was built using geomagnetic storm measurements and data from magnetic materials beneath the Earth – revealing Minnesota is particularly at risk of being blasted by solar material.
Solar storms have the ability to disrupt Earth’s magnetic field and wreak havoc on our electric power grids. Officials warn that the massive electromagnetic pulse (EMP) from solar flares could cause $2.6 trillion in damages across the globe and bring an end to modern civilization as we know it. Solar Storms are eruptions of magnetic energy from the sun’s surface. Hot gases are accelerated when this magnetic energy is suddenly released and travels quickly towards the Earth. A solar flare’s killer electrons’ can travel at up to several million miles per hour towards Earth.
The latest researcher comes from Jeffrey Love, a geologists with the United States Geological Survey, and his colleagues, who have been working on this project called Space Weather Operations, Research and Mitigation (SWORM) for the past year. This project was first initiated by the White House’s National Science and Technology Council in 2015. Love and his colleagues believe knowing which power grids could be hit the hardest is key for survival, reports Science Alert. To create an accurate map, the team plotted the geomagnetic activity above certain areas and then gathered ground magnetometer data, or magnetotelluric survey.
The geomagnetic data was collected by the International Real-time Magnetic Observatory Network (INTERMAGNET), an organization that monitors Earth’s magnetic field. And the magnetotelluric survey data was taken from the US National Science Foundation’s EarthScope, which monitors electrical conductivity in the ground using hundreds of sensors located across the US. Solar storms could wreak havoc on Earth (pictured) and surges could be up to 100 times more powerful in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin than in other parts of the United States. However, experts say more than half of the US has yet to be plotted due to lack of funding
The US government revealed just last year that they are preparing for a catastrophic solar flare which could wipe out power across the world for months. The last powerful geomagnetic solar storm to hit the earth was in 1859, which caused telegraph lines to explode, setting fire to some telegraph offices, and power to fail across Europe and North America. In today’s far more advanced and technological world, experts the effects would be devastating. The massive electromagnetic pulse (EMP) from solar flares could wipe out power grids, bringing an end to modern civilization as we know it as cell phones, credit cards and the internet were rendered useless. –Daily Mail
The following “signs” are a series of analyzed trigger-events or catalysts that could precipitate a sequence of catastrophic scenarios which could pose significant risks or threats for the inhabitants of planet Earth. While some of these events may not occur as prescribed – certain inevitability factors associated with these events may still remain.
October 2016 – SPACE – There are many cosmic catastrophes that could do us in, completely irrespective of anything that happens here on Earth. A star could pass into our Solar System and swallow up our planet whole, or eject us from our orbit and cause us to permanently freeze over. A supernova or gamma ray burst could go off too close to us, disintegrating all life on the Earth’s surface. Or, as we know it did at least once before some 65 million years ago, a large, fast-moving object like a comet or asteroid could have a catastrophic collision with Earth. At least if we’re prepared, we ought to see one coming and be able to take preparations. But what if there’s no chance; what if an incoming comet is somehow unseeable? David Bertone heard about that possibility, and wants to know!
I recently came across a few articles regarding dark comets, and to say the least it freaked me out! […] Is Napier right about the dark comets? Are they truly a threat to us [on] earth? We have lots of threats to life on Earth, and getting struck by a large, fast-moving, unexpected object is certainly among them! Bill Napier is a scientist who studies potentially hazardous objects from outer space. He rightly points out that, while most efforts to catalogue the potential dangers to Earth focus on near-Earth objects like the asteroids that leave the main belt and cross Earth’s orbit, that might not be a good reflection of what’s actually likely to get us. Nor is it necessarily an asteroid orbiting interior to Jupiter or a comet orbiting exterior to the orbit of Neptune, just waiting to get perturbed and flung into the inner Solar System. There are plenty of objects orbiting in between the orbits of the four gas giants, known as centaurs, that could be hurtled inwards without any warning, and most of them have not been catalogued. Napier postulates that many of these centaurs may be invisible to us, even after being flung inwards, until it’s far too late.
But this brings up an important question: what could render a comet dark, or otherwise unseeable? It isn’t simply going to be a comet that comes towards us from the outer Solar System that’s terrible at reflecting light. Sure, a centaur could have had all its volatile ices boiled off over billions of years, reducing its reflectivity tremendously. As obvious as that seems, the amount of light the Sun emits is so extreme that even a medium-sized comet (or centaur) that absorbed 99.9% of the Sun’s light would still be easily visible at the distance of Saturn. Moreover, comets tend to be made up of mostly ices, which are highly reflective and which get brought to the surface as a comet heats up. The only thoroughly ”dark” bodies in our Solar System are more like our Moon, which still reflects light very brightly, as any casual watcher of the night sky will tell you. An object that was as dark as any naturally occurring, abundant element or compound would still be visible from its reflected sunlight, particularly if you looked in the infrared portion of the spectrum.
But there are other possibilities to consider. What if an incoming, highly reflective comet were oriented bizarrely? What if it was quite icy, but reflected all the sunlight that struck it away from Earth, like some kind of strange crystal? It’s less obvious, but that wouldn’t work, either. When an object like that entered the planet-containing portion of the Solar System, it would heat up. Heat acting on the ices causes the development of a long tail that points away from the Sun, and this will be easily observable from one of many professional or even amateur all-sky surveys before too much time has passed.
But perhaps nature will conspire to make that tail unseeable from our point of view? In order for the tail to be hidden, the incoming comet would need to be directed straight at us, aligned so that the Sun, the Earth and the comet made a straight line. If the tail points directly away from us and is hidden behind the comet, that would render everything invisible, and we wouldn’t be able to see it, right? Unfortunately, that’s wrong, too. Comet tails don’t simply point away from the Sun, they spread outwards away from a comet. Even a “head-on” comet like this would have a visible coma around it. Again, amateur or professional astronomers would catch this quickly. But there is a real danger of an invisible comet, and it’s very different from the form that Napier envisions in any of his scenario. Imagine, if you will, that a bright, reflective, tail-and-coma-containing comet were headed right for us. Is there any direction it could approach us that you can think of that would render it completely unable to be seen? There is: from the direction of the Sun.
Telescopes don’t dare point too close to the Sun, even from space, since even a glimmer of direct sunlight will ruin and fry your optical system. If any object — comet, asteroid, centaur, even a kicked-up fragment from a collision with Mercury — either approached the Sun from behind it (from our perspective) or were sling-shotted around it, the right trajectory could send it hurtling towards Earth. This is part of the reason why having NASA’s STEREO satellites online is so important.
At this point, the technology to deflect an incoming asteroid or comet a significant amount in a short amount of time hasn’t been developed, but at least by having a set of observatories at different locations in the Solar System, we could see everything that was headed for us. In the future, more sensitive infrared all-sky surveys will make a far more complete census of the centaurs in our Solar System, and the launch of WFIRST in the 2020s will help us map potentially hazardous objects to much greater distances than we’ve presently done. But the odds of a distant object being hurled into us after being perturbed for the first time are exceedingly small; the much scarier prospect is of a long-period comet being kicked ever-so-slightly into Earth’s orbital path.
Comet Swift-Tuttle, which gave rise to the Perseids, is the single most dangerous object known to humanity, and has a chance to impact us with more than 20 times the energy of the legendary dinosaur-killer in the 4400s. But we’ve got plenty of time until that might happen. In the meanwhile, take heart in the fact that except for Sun-directed asteroids and comets, we can see everything large that could come headed our way. And if we’re lucky enough to make it as a civilization for another thousand years or so, our technology will likely have advanced to the point where perhaps asteroid/comet deflection isn’t such a daunting task after all! –Forbes
October 2016 – VIETNAM – Floods triggered by heavy rains have killed 24 people and left four others missing in central Vietnam, disaster officials said Monday, as Typhoon Sarika approaches after leaving at least two people dead and displacing more than 150,000 in the Philippines. In the worst-hit province of Quang Binh, 18 people died and authorities are searching for three others who are missing, disaster official Tran Le Dang Hung said. Six people died and one was reported missing in three other central provinces.
“We are worried. We have instructed district governments to outline plans for evacuating people from high-risk areas to cope with the Typhoon,” Hung said by telephone from Quang Binh. Heavy rains of up to 90 centimeters (3 feet) on Friday and Saturday submerged 125,000 homes in the region, temporarily disrupted the North-South Highway and damaged infrastructure, crops and fish farms. Hung said the floods have receded in most areas in Quang Binh.
In the Philippines, fast-moving Sarika Typhoon blew out of the northern Philippines on Sunday after leaving at least two people dead and displacing more than 150,000, though the region was spared a major disaster due in part to the storm’s speed. The Typhoon is over in the South China Sea and was moving at the speed of 15 kilometers (9.3 miles) to 20 kilometers (12.5 miles) per hour heading toward northern Vietnam, according to Vietnam’s national weather forecast center. –ABC News