‘Black Swan’ storms: rising ocean temperatures could spawn birth of super-storms

December 5, 2012SAN FRANCISCOA “black swan” cyclone may sound like the latest comic book hero, but this “extreme of the extremes” is the result of climate models that suggest global warming will make future hurricanes more intense. The rare monster tropical cyclones (the term for hurricanes, typhoons and other tropical storms) could inundate coastal areas with storm surges greater than 15 feet (4.6 meters), and could even surpass 30 feet (9 m) in some regions of the world. The research was described here yesterday (Dec. 3) at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union. By simulating thousands of possible future storms, researchers identified the outliers that could hit coastal areas in the future but that wouldn’t show up in predictions based solely on historical records, said Ning Lin, a professor at Princeton University. The scientists relied on the same model the National Weather Service uses to predict hurricane activity for a given season. Lin and colleague Kerry Emanuel of MIT looked at the possible storm surge from extreme storms in three locations: Tampa Bay, Fla., Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Darwin, Australia. Lin said more than 16 feet (5 m) of surge was possible in Tampa Bay. A Florida black swan hurricane would move northward, parallel to the west Florida coast. The probability of one of these storms hitting Tampa Bay is one in 10,000, Lin said. Even though Hurricane Sandy broke several records and generated tremendous storm surge, the superstorm was not a black swan, Lin said. The simulated storm surges calculated by the model for New York, at up to 16 feet, top the record set by Hurricane Sandy, at 14 feet (4.3 m) — part of which was the high tide at the time. Tropical cyclones are already extremely rare in the Arabian Sea, with its low humidity and high wind shear, which disrupts storm formation, but one made landfall in Oman and Iran in 2007. Extreme storm surges of 30 feet (9 m) in Abu Dhabi, UAE, and Doha, Qatar, and 23 feet (7 m) in Dubai are possible as a result of a black swan storm, the researchers report in their abstract for the meeting. Finally, in Darwin, which was immensely devastated by Cyclone Tracy in 1974, a black swan storm could generate surges above 33 feet (10 m), the researchers plan to report in a talk on their findings on Tuesday. The model Lin and Emanuel used to look at the effect of black swans takes into account the effects of climate change. Rising ocean temperatures have shifted the intensity of tropical cyclones, which include hurricanes and typhoons, to higher levels. In the past century, sea surface temperatures have risen 0.9 degree Fahrenheit (0.5 degree Celsius) globally. Scientists continue to debate whether this increase in temperature will boost the intensity or decrease the number of storms. Globally, about 90 tropical cyclones, on average, occur every year. –Yahoo News
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This entry was posted in Civilizations unraveling, Climate unraveling, Cloudburst storms with flashflooding, Cyclone or Hurricane, Deluge from torrential rains, Earth Changes, Earth Watch, Extreme Weather Event, Gale-force winds and gusts, High-risk potential hazard zone, Record rainfall, Strange high tides & freak waves, Time - Event Acceleration, Unprecedented Flooding, Unseasonable Weather Event. Bookmark the permalink.

5 Responses to ‘Black Swan’ storms: rising ocean temperatures could spawn birth of super-storms

  1. onthemark55 says:

    With these super storms becomming more prevelant the idea of offshore oil drilling becomes a major enviromental concern that will probable be ignored. One would like to think the powers to be would factor climate change into the equation. Wishfull thinking considering additional nuke plants are being pursued in Japan after the Fukushima disaster and the inherent geological instability of the region. Makes ya wonder if aliens have sprayed an insanity aerosal over the planet. (kidding, i think)

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    • Irene C says:

      I don’t think aliens have sprayed an insanity aerosol over the planet, but maybe an aerosol that increases greed and/or indifference. (Well, maybe there is a touch of insanity in there.) And don’t forget all the high-dollar homes that are being built along the shore line. My plan was always to move to the beach when I retired, since I love the ocean, but I might just change my mind. We might get tornadoes and blizzards here, but that I can deal with.

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  2. Pingback: Can You See The Last Day Signs? Dec. 5, 2012 :: End Times Research Ministry

  3. tonic says:

    Wonder if this headline would be here if Sandy had not occured. Always it seems attention is only brought when forced. Like the horse bolting before the stable door is shut.
    Britian is soaking wet. Like a sponge soaking in the bath. Last two weeks temperatures have dropped, so ice on the roads is a problem. Springs are appearing in diverse places. Gritting will not work with springs, the salt gets washed away.

    I never seen them appear so early, usually springtime. In some parts of the US, it seems people might be spending Christmas in shorts. And all because co2 has gone to 0.04%, from 0.037% in “normal times”.. (these figures are only based on what I could rersearch online, so please do not shout at me if these have been updated)

    But we should ignore what happened during the Maurder and Dalton minimum.

    Recycling is the best thing that I have seen in my life time. It shows respect to our planet, and a desire to pass it on better than we found it to our kids.

    But I just cannot buy what mainstrem is blaming for all the changes occuring weatherwise, around the planet. It just does not add up. Time period is just too short.

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  4. I think the gases released into the atmosphere after quakes are related as well as global warm up, by volcanic eruption & ozone affected! “?OUR AIR & SEAS ARE MOST DAMAGEING CAUSE OF DISATER!”

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