Study predicts chance of 9+ magnitude mega-earthquake in the Aleutians

Aleutian Islands EQ
June 2016ALASKA There’s a nine percent chance a magnitude 9 or larger earthquake will strike the Aleutian Islands in the next 50 years. That is the prediction offered by scientists from the University of Hawaii at Mānoa — made with the help of a newly designed computer model. Researchers say an earthquake of that size could send a mega-tsunami in the direction of the Hawaiian Islands.
The Aleutian Islands, which stretch toward Russia from the coast of Alaska, sit along a subduction zone at the convergence of the Pacific and North American tectonic plates. Scientists say the chance of a dramatic slip along the fault lines that make up the subduction zone is significant. They detailed the threat of a mega-earthquake in a new paper, published this week in the Journal of Geophysical Research – Solid Earth.
Aleut Islands“Necessity is the mother of invention,” lead study author Rhett Butler, a geophysicist at the UHM School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, explained in a news release. “Having no recorded history of mega tsunamis in Hawai’i, and given the tsunami threat to Hawaii, we devised a model for Magnitude 9 earthquake rates following upon the insightful work of David Burbidge and others.” Researchers integrated fault system measurements — fault length and convergence rate — with Bayesian probability models, and then tested the predictions against historic tectonic events.
Researchers compared the simulation to recent catastrophic earthquake and tsunami events, including Sumatra-Andaman in 2004; Alaska in 1964; Chile in 1960; and Kamchatka in 1952. “These five events represent half of the seismic energy that has been released globally since 1900,” said Butler. “The events differed in details, but all of them generated great tsunamis that caused enormous destruction.” Researchers further refined the model by incorporating ancient evidence of tsunami events found in the archaeological and geologic records. “We were surprised and pleased to see how well the model actually fit the paleo-tsunami data” concluded Butler. The scientists are now working to augment the model in order to predict smaller earthquakes.   –UPI

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12 Responses to Study predicts chance of 9+ magnitude mega-earthquake in the Aleutians

  1. Deirdre Morris says:

    And if we keep fracking and drilling, we can count on it! Just like Christchurch NZ racked twenty years before their big one(s) and Japan also. America has experienced mini earthquakes from Texas to New York along the same spots where fracking takes place. We don’t need to wait on GOD to do anything…we are doing it ourselves!

    Liked by 3 people

    • joanofark06 says:

      Like Oklahoma too! With all the fracking there, their having what? hundreds of little earthquakes a day? when it was never like that at anytime in their past? So many scientists and high ups, calling for fracking to stop, because their pretty sure it’s the fracking causing it. Heck, I’m not the smartest knife in the drawer, and just seeing how fracking is done with pictures, and reading how it’s done, even I can see, that there’s got to be some correlation between the two! Oh, but how many unintelligent, ignorant people do we having running coorporations, and other projects that take away or add to the earth, do we have? A lot!! So Sad! Well, at least there’s a minor amount of groups that are fighting it with their minor resources, and I praise them, for fighting this fracking business with eveything they got! Oh, but I wait for the day, for the what the bible says, will be the end of this world, and on to the next. End this stupidity now!


    • Milsey says:

      Can you justify your claims? Having lived in Christchurch for the last 38 years this is the first time fracking has been mentioned by anyone. NZ has thousands of fault lines, we aren’t called the Shaky Isles for nothing…’s just nature being nature. No conspiracy theories needed.


    • chuck says:

      Oh yes, fracking. Right. That is the demon for sure. Scientists used to believe that these tremors were caused by the little dash board Hula Girls you would sometimes see in older cars, but the fracking “theory”, and the complete absence of any cogent model, is a far better explanation. It is so exciting to live in a time when we have thrown away basic science for money; everyone can dance the circle of Global Dumbing, and expand that catechism to other disciplines as necessary.


  2. joanofark06 says:

    I wish ExtinctionProtocol would focus on the present, and not give us stories that say that this or that could happen in 50 years or 75 yrs or whatever. I mean, what a waste of reading time! We won’t be alive in that time, and what purpose is this to know? Is it going to change my life today? Or tomorrow? No! So why even report it?? I’m sorry, but it just burns me up, to waste time reading something that won’t affect anyone at anytime, except years and years down the road!


    • If it wasn’t years down the road, I wouldn’t bother printing it. The time that prophets and wise men have warned about for eons is suddenly upon us.

      Take heed, lest these things come upon you like a thief in the night.


    • jim says:

      Hi Joan You make no sense You say one thing and then another . Don’t be swayed by what other people say on here stick to your guns. Anything can happen in an instant and fracking does cause earthquakes believe it or not.


  3. owlwoman911 says:

    50 years? I’d laugh but I’m too busy watching the Pacific fold up like an accordion, and crying. We are fully engaged in an ELE, w no end in sight. If there’s 50 MONTHS before general collapse and reorganization I personally will bless the Lord, but the odds are past grim. The deep Pacific quakes on both sides are a sure sign of a HUGE problem.


    • YellowBird says:

      Let us bless HIM anyway- the Gate is creaking open, and the Sky will at some point soon furl up like a Scroll- but when it does the whole earth will finally behold its CREATOR on the Day of Reckoning. What Hope to those whose hearts long to see HIM!


  4. Dennis E. says:

    Well, in 1964 there was a 9.2 in Alaska on March 27th. So, to tell the truth any size earthquake from this area doesn’t surprise me.


  5. km says:

    That sounds like a real rocker! Just waiting for New Madrid to go off soon after. Missouri will feel those shocks, which could set off New Madrid? It’s about time, last blast was back in 1811.


  6. Tony says:

    And this is news how? There’s a less than 10% chance of a 9 earthquake in the next half century. And the “news” is if such a rare occurrence happens, it could create a tsunami? Duh. Pretty much any 9.0 earthquake will create a tsunami if it’s near or in the ocean.


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