Welcome to the ‘Double El Niño’ — and more extreme weather

Extreme Weather
March 2015EXTREME WEATHER – We’re about to experience a “double El Niño” — a rare weather phenomenon that climatologists had warned about several months ago. That means two consecutive years of the concentration of warm water in the Pacific Ocean that brings West Coast storms, quiet hurricane seasons in the Atlantic and busy ones in the Pacific. The danger is that this could mean more than a few months of odd weather, but instead usher in a new phase of climate change. Last year was the warmest year on record; 2015 looks set to be even warmer. “One way of thinking about global warming from the human influences is that it’s not just a gradual increase, but perhaps it’s more like a staircase, and we’re about to go up an extra step to a new level,” says climate scientist Kevin Trenberth of the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
Normally, the warm water from an El Niño spreads across the Pacific and cools as it evaporates. The increased moisture in the air leads to thunderstorms and tropical storms. That hasn’t happened as much as anticipated over the last year. “The moisture in the atmosphere triggers a lot of thunderstorms and tropical storms, but in general that atmospheric connection has not been anything like as strong as we normally expect in El Niño events, and as a result, the warm water is sort of sitting there, and it hasn’t petered out,” Trenberth explains. “The energy has not been taken out of the ocean, and there’s a mini global warming, so to speak, associated with that.” What kind of temperature increase are we talking about? Trenberth says it could mean a rise of two- or three-tenths-of-a-degree Celsius, or up to half a degree Fahrenheit. The change could occur “relatively abruptly,” but then stick around for five or 10 years. While those numbers may seem small, in the context of global climate, a shift of that magnitude could have devastating consequences.
“With that kind of an increase, there is about 2 percent increase in the moisture in the atmosphere, which feeds into all the weather systems that occur, and it gets concentrated and magnified by all of the storms, so you can get double or quadruple the effects,” Trenberth says. This is the exactly the kind of intensifying effect that climate scientists have warned about for years. As oceans heat up, more moisture goes into the atmosphere, which feeds more storms. “The rough ride is partly what we expect to see with global climate change by the fact that the oceans are generally warming up, that puts more moisture into the atmosphere above the oceans, which gets sucked into all of the weather systems that occur, makes those weather systems more vigorous, a little stronger, the rainfalls are heavier, even the snowfalls are heavier as a consequence of that.”
The one short-term positive that Trenberth notes is that this year’s El Niño isn’t as strong as past ones. But the overall trends are clear, and the El Niño just accelerates some of what we’ve already seen: Drought in places like California or Brazil’s Northeast, and more intense hurricane season in the Pacific. “We’re seeing this around the world that these extremes — ironically drought in some places, floods in other places — are really causing a lot of difficulty in many places around the world,” he says. –PRI
contribution Alef

This entry was posted in Black Swan Event, Civilizations unraveling, Climate unraveling, Cloudburst storms with flashflooding, Cyclone or Hurricane, Deluge from torrential rains, Derecho storm, Earth Changes, Earth Watch, Environmental Threat, Erratic Jet Stream, Extreme Weather Event, Hailstorm, Heatwave, High-risk potential hazard zone, Ice Storm, Potential Earthchange hotspot, Record rainfall, Time - Event Acceleration, Tornado Outbreak, Unprecedented Flooding, Unseasonable Weather Event, Unusual hail storm. Bookmark the permalink.

24 Responses to Welcome to the ‘Double El Niño’ — and more extreme weather

  1. Shelly Pangborn says:

    I wish they could take all the Fukushima radiation, plotonium and all the other deadly stuff out of it. Our rain here in New Mexico burns the skin when it comes from the Pacific. Mix that with all the weather modification chemicals, I don’t look forward to this rain. It’s sad because New Mexcio needs it so badly and all the trees I can see from my windows in the mountains are in some stage of dying. Is there really such an event as a double El Nino or is this something they are making up. I have never heard of it, but of course that doesn’t mean it didn’t exist before now. What a world this has become.
    Here is the bad news and the good news: Isaiah 51:6
    “Lift up your eyes to the heavens, look at the earth beneath; the heavens will vanish like smoke, the earth will wear out like a garment and its inhabitants die like flies. But my salvation will last forever, my righteousness will never fail.”

    Liked by 1 person

  2. richfish30 says:

    So I’m confused…are we heading into an ice age from the decrease in record sun spots or are we heading in global warming or neither, but rather (climate change). I mean between the record snowfall in the northeast and cold in the south as well as the crazy one day snow fall in Italy it seem like an ice age. But then again there’s a record drout in the west and the warmest year on record… So please explain because I don’t understand what’s happening…

    Like

  3. SeanM says:

    Getting warmer? Hello!! LOL

    Like

  4. merv mustchin says:

    You have sold out to the enemy if you believe last yr was the hottest on record. I know that is the lie they put out but it simply was not true as it has been getting colder each yr for the last 10yrs.

    Like

    • Yellow Bird says:

      depends where you live…

      where i live (PacNW) it has gotten steadily warmer overall, but with sharper short-term temps variations. rains are changing too…

      Like

  5. Susan says:

    And if you believe in all their computer model simulations, you are easily deceived, as it is a load of hogwash for them to cause worry and make money. My hubby states that volcanoes do more damage than any human has since the beginning! And with HAARP, anything unusual like a double el nino could be caused by them. Cimate change is a load of hogwash, dont believe a word of it!

    Like

  6. Christopher says:

    Alvin, you need to read steven goddard website realscience.com

    Like

  7. George says:

    “Climate Change” has been on the Earth for eons. It will remain so even “with” humans.

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Fara T says:

    Since we know air and water pollution are bad and may contribute to climate change – why isn’t it made illegal at least in our country if not worldwide? The fact it’s destroying animal life should be reason enough to make it illegal with serious jail time for violators. Most all people agree pollution is a bad thing.

    Like

  9. niebo says:

    “One way of thinking about global warming from the human influences is that it’s not just a gradual increase, but perhaps it’s more like a staircase, and we’re about to go up an extra step to a new level. . . .”

    And, yet, CO2 levels in the atmosphere (for the month of February 2015) hover around 400 parts per million . . . or 0.4 percent. You know . . . LESS that 1 (ONE) percent. So . . . if carbon pollution, man-made, natural, extra-terrestrial, whatever, is less than 1 percent . . . what is causing all this “climate change”?

    http://co2now.org/

    Liked by 1 person

    • Kenny Strawn says:

      What about the methane levels? Methane as a greenhouse gas is ~109 times more potent, mole for mole, than carbon dioxide, but fortunately its half-life is shorter…

      Like

      • niebo says:

        Well, Kenny Strawn, this is the best I could do on short notice:

        First, in regards to the potency of methane as a greenhouse gas in comparison with CO2, what I found is not what you suggested:

        “Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, around 20 times more effective per molecule than carbon dioxide.”

        http://worldoceanreview.com/en/wor-1/ocean-chemistry/climate-change-and-methane-hydrates/

        “But the IPCC’s latest report, released Monday . . . reports that methane is 34 times stronger a heat-trapping gas than CO2 over a 100-year time scale. . . .”

        http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2013/10/02/2708911/fracking-ipcc-methane/

        “. . . Methane, a greenhouse gas about 30 times more potent than carbon dioxide. . . .”
        http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-is-there-more-methane-in-the-atmosphere/

        “. . . Over a 100-year period, it [methane] traps 29 times more heat per mass unit than carbon dioxide. . . .”

        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_methane

        “But a given amount of methane traps at least 25 times as much heat [as carbon dioxide] . . . .”

        http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2012/12/methane/lavelle-text

        “Pound for pound, the comparative impact of CH4 [methane] on climate change is over 20 times greater than CO2 over a 100-year period.”

        http://epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gases/ch4.html

        Plus, there’s this:

        “There is much less methane in the atmosphere than CO2: about 1800 parts per billion (ppb) [1.8 parts per million], compared with an estimated 390 parts per million of CO2. However its potential for global warming has been estimated at 25 times greater than CO2 . While CO2 emissions are estimated to contribute 75% to global warming effects, methane is a distant second at 15%.”

        http://www.thinkglobalgreen.org/METHANE.html

        In the prehistoric past, however, methane levels in the atmosphere were MUCH higher:

        “. . . Earth was filled in a shroud of hydrocarbons some 2.5 billion years ago. Back then, a haze dominated by methane engulfed the atmosphere such that light could barely reach the ground. . . .”

        http://www.zmescience.com/research/earths-prehistoric-atmosphere-was-covered-in-a-haze-similar-to-saturns-moon-titan/

        “A tremendous release of methane gas frozen beneath the sea floor heated the Earth by up to 13°F (7°C) 55 million years ago, a new NASA study confirms.”

        http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/news/20011210/

        “The researchers estimated that the global population of sauropods throughout the Mezozoic era (250 to 65 million years ago) was putting out around 520 million tons of methane per year – roughly equal to all natural and manmade sources of methane today. . . .”

        http://www.ibtimes.com/dinosaur-farts-could-have-helped-warm-prehistoric-earth-697227

        “Fossil remains show that sometime around 252 million years ago, about 90 percent of all species on Earth were suddenly wiped out — by far the largest of this planet’s five known mass extinctions . . . . The perpetrators, this new work suggests, were not asteroids, volcanoes, or raging coal fires, all of which have been implicated previously. Rather, they were a form of microbes — specifically, methane-producing archaea called Methanosarcina — that suddenly bloomed explosively in the oceans, spewing prodigious amounts of methane into the atmosphere and dramatically changing the climate and the chemistry of the oceans. . . . The burst of methane would have increased carbon dioxide levels in the oceans, resulting in ocean acidification — similar to the acidification predicted from human-induced climate change.”

        http://newsoffice.mit.edu/2014/ancient-whodunit-may-be-solved-microbes-did-it

        And, we can blame cows and pigs for the increasing amounts of methane in the atmosphere, BUT:

        “. . . There is more energy in methane hydrates than in all the world’s oil, coal and gas put together.”

        http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27021610

        While global estimates vary considerably, the energy content of methane occurring in hydrate form is immense, possibly exceeding the combined energy content of all other known fossil fuels.

        http://energy.gov/fe/science-innovation/oil-gas-research/methane-hydrate

        Methane Hydrates form in the ocean:

        “. . . Methane in the ocean is produced by microbes within the sea floor that break down organic matter that sinks down from the sunlit zone near the surface. . . the remains of dead algae and animals, as well as their excrements. In the deepest areas of the ocean, below around 2000 to 3000 metres, only a very small amount of ­organic remains reach the bottom because most of them are broken down by other organisms on their way down through the water column. As a rule of thumb, it can be said that only around 1 per cent of the organic material produced at the surface actually ends up in the deep sea. . . . Methane hydrates therefore primarily occur on the continental slopes, those areas where the continental plates meet the deep-sea regions. Here there is sufficient organic matter accumulating on the bottom and the combination of temperature and pressure is favourable. In very cold regions like the Arctic, methane hydrates even occur on the shallow continental shelf (less than 200 metres of water depth) or on the land in permafrost. . . .”

        http://worldoceanreview.com/en/wor-1/ocean-chemistry/climate-change-and-methane-hydrates/

        So . . . I don’t know if this addresses the “what about” exactly, but, as far as my “take” on the subject: I believe in “climate change” because I believe in geology and the geologic scale of time/events (ice ages come and ice ages go) . . . not because I believe that mankind is bound to wreck the place. Do we, as humans, contribute to the issue? Absolutely. Just like the dinosaurs did, and the amoeba do, too. There is much evidence to suggest that this issue [climate change/global warming] is far from settled.

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  10. Lulu says:

    I am not really ‘sold’ on the man-made climate change theories. Look at all of the volcanic activity on the planet at the moment – at sea and on land. This activity is an increase on recent history (including hundreds of years). The dynamics that are causing the volcanoes and magma activity, let alone the ash emitted from volcanoes (and other gases seeping into the atmosphere from other natural sources), need to be incorporated into the discussion and investigation of ‘climate changes’. Man is so ignorant to think that ‘he’ is greater than nature – though ‘man’ has done ‘his’ best to pollute the world.

    Liked by 1 person

  11. Bone Idle says:

    See ENSO forecasts here : http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/climatic-phenomena-pages/enso-forecast-page/

    See historical ENSO charts here : http://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/climatic-phenomena-pages/enso/

    There has not been a serious El-Nino effect since 1998.
    Trenbarth’s papers must be taken with a lot of skepticism in mind. He is a known alarmist.

    Like

  12. vigyanayak says:

    Whatever is happening is cyclical in nature, it has happened through ages, and will go on for ages. Question is we as human, with average age of 60 years able to understand cycles of gigantic bodies and correlate events? How can we understand complete picture, if True Polar Wandering and tectonic plate shifting was a myth before 1960’s…

    Like

    • vigyanayak says:

      We all are seekers, of the Truth…
      Answer might lie, somewhere around the globe. If we raise our view we’ll understand that such aspects do take hundreds of years to show result. Question: Will we be seeing doomsday in our lifetime, Not possible. Possibility: Life becomes tough making material, Immaterial, and self reliance is only way. Answer: What are we saving for our generations (countable) – Knowledge to survive in atrocities? (Snatching from each other/Saving will not last, only teamwork will).
      God(s) must symbolize something, even if they belong to any religion (Only religion is humanity). If we try to correlate concepts of “Shiva Tandav” (Kal Bhairav) and “Goddess Kali” (angry face of Mother Nature), they seem to coincide perfectly with concepts of True Polar Wandering and Tectonic Plate Shifts.

      Like

  13. Lulu says:

    Yes, yes, yes vigyanayak (I want to like your posts, but don’t have WP account)

    Liked by 1 person

    • vigyanayak says:

      No issues friend, we are hungry for truth, thanks for listening to us🙂 What if, cycles of climate, and movement of Moon provides us insight on how our future will shape like? Should we start thinking on how to upgrade ourselves as humans and not Hindus/Muslims/Christians/etc. since coming years are really tough. We agree that ultimate doomsday (for whole earth) might have hundreds of years (350 or so), but we do need to understand that globe is divided into 2 parts (East and West). What if humanity in West do have less time than east, and we all know it’s west which is running global economy? Guess it’s high time we should start thinking now.

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  14. Kenny Strawn says:

    A double La Niña is just as rare… yet that’s exactly what 2010-12, which just so happens to be the leading end of the current ENSO cycle that this El Niño is part of, was. If SOI history is any guide, a cycle that begins with a double La Niña, followed by double-neutral (2012-14), must end (2014-16) with a double El Niño…

    Like

  15. Gary says:

    The Earth will go on—- humans may not.

    Like

  16. Simply chant this Caribbean Mantra – https://youtu.be/fiFoSR8LMhk

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