Chances of California having a major earthquake 8.0 or larger are increasing warns USGS

March 2015 SAN FRANCISCO, CAThe U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) released a new California earthquake forecast last week (March 10, 2015). The new report slightly raises the likelihood of big earthquakes over the next several decades, but lowers chances in some regions of smaller, magnitude-6.7 quakes. The forecast also revises estimates about how future earthquakes will likely be distributed across the state. The Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or UCERF3, improves upon previous models by incorporating the latest data on the state’s complex system of active geological faults, as well as new methods for translating these data into earthquake likelihoods. Compared to the previous assessment issued in 2008, UCERF2, the estimated rate of earthquakes around magnitude 6.7 – the size of the destructive 1994 Northridge earthquake – has gone down by about 30 percent. The expected frequency of such events statewide has dropped from an average of one per 4.8 years to about one per 6.3 years.
However, in the new study, the estimate for the likelihood that California will experience a magnitude 8 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years has increased from about 4.7% to about 7.0%. USGS scientist Ned Field is lead author of the study. He said: The new likelihoods are due to the inclusion of possible multi-fault ruptures, where earthquakes are no longer confined to separate, individual faults, but can occasionally rupture multiple faults simultaneously. The information in the USGS report helps set earthquake insurance rates and building codes in California. Tom Jordan, Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center is co-author of the study. Jordan said: We are fortunate that seismic activity in California has been relatively low over the past century. But we know that tectonic forces are continually tightening the springs of the San Andreas fault system, making big quakes inevitable. The UCERF3 model provides our leaders and the public with improved information about what to expect, so that we can better prepare.
Bottom line: A new long-term earthquake forecast for California – The Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or UCERF3 – was released on March 10, 2015 by the U.S. Geological Survey. The report revises estimates for the chances of large earthquakes over the next several decades and how they are likely to be distributed across the state. –Earth Sky
This entry was posted in Civilizations unraveling, Dormant fault activation, Earth Changes, Earth Watch, Earth's core dynamics, Earthquake Omens?, High-risk potential hazard zone, Lithosphere collapse & fisssure, Potential Earthchange hotspot, Prophecies referenced, Signs of Magnetic Field weakening, Tectonic plate movement, Time - Event Acceleration. Bookmark the permalink.

9 Responses to Chances of California having a major earthquake 8.0 or larger are increasing warns USGS

  1. Dennis E. says:

    I am near 60 and I’ve heard this story all my life. Let me add to this. Lets think about a ripple effect.
    From the West Coast to The East Coast. It can happen.

    Like

  2. niebo says:

    “The information in the USGS report helps set earthquake insurance rates and building codes in California.”

    Oh.

    “Risk of ginormous killer earthquake increases from 4.7 to 7 percent . . . but rates will increase at variable exponents of that 2.3 percentage points; since this coverage is required for mortgage financing purposes in the state of California, please consider this increase to be a mandatory property insurance tax which may or may not be referred to as ‘QuakeCare’. See policy fine print for more obscure details.”

    Like

  3. Redrockbunny Sedona says:

    Yes, I saw this article. But I think it will be sooner, rather than later….AND BIGGER!!

    Date: Fri, 20 Mar 2015 11:20:52 +0000 To: mtnbunny@hotmail.com

    Like

  4. helen parks says:

    not forgetting that not so long ago all the Richter Scales were demoted one unit, so if it reads as an 8.0 it is really a 9.0

    Like

  5. Yellow Bird says:

    alvin, good to see you updating again…

    ive been seeing lots of terrible drought images from all around the world, do you think you might be posting more on all of that? i’ve just read an article talking about Peak Water and Grain being far more eminent than Peak Oil…

    Like

  6. Nickname says:

    Water is very heavy. With the water gone an “heave ho” is occurring on the land. A realignment will occur.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. Like hydraulic fracking causing more frequent earthquakes in the oil patch, you have to wonder what the effect severe drought and the depletion of the underground water table is going to have on the increased frequency and severity of earthquakes in California.

    Like

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