Top coronavirus model predicts 100,000 Americans dead by the end of this summer’s first wave

A top coronavirus model is predicting that 100,000 Americans will have died from COVID-19 by the end of the summer – as the US death toll surpasses President Donald Trump’s best-case scenario of 60,000 deaths. The MOBS model from the Network Science Institute at Northeastern University also estimates that there will be about 89,000 deaths by mid-May if stay-at-home orders remain in place. That death toll would increase to over one million in an unmitigated scenario, according to the projections that are among those used by the CDC to forecast the pandemic.

As of Thursday, the U.S. death toll is now at 63,538 and there are more than one million infections across the country. Trump, in recent weeks, had suggested that 60,000 might be the total death count from COVID-19. He had cited the estimate as a sign of relative success after the White House previously warned the US could suffer 100,000 to 240,000 deaths. Another 2,389 Americans died from coronavirus on Wednesday after a brief lull in new fatalities. 

Daily deaths had been on the decline in recent days, dropping below 2,000 on Saturday and continuing to fall on Sunday and Monday. New deaths recorded fell to 1,315 on Monday, the first-time daily fatalities in the US had been this low since April 5, before climbing again this week. New cases also spiked on Wednesday with 28,259 new infections, bringing the total to 1,065,245 cases.   Dr. Deborah Birx, coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, on March 29 revealed models projecting the deaths of 100,00-240,000 Americans, assuming social distancing efforts were ongoing. At the same time, she said epidemiology models initially had predicted a worst-case scenario of 1.5 million to 2.2 million US deaths without mitigation efforts such as social distancing, hand washing and staying home as much as possible. Soon after, Trump began speculating that the 100,000 figure was an outer limit. Later, he leaned more toward the 60,000 projection. ‘The minimum number was 100,000 lives and I think we’ll be substantially under that number,’ he said April 10. ‘Hard to believe that if you had 60,000 – you could never be happy, but that’s a lot fewer than we were originally told and thinking.’ – Daily Mail

U.S. orders 100,000 more body bags, preparing for coronavirus worst: deaths now exceed 63,000

Epic Fail: The COVID-19 epidemic in the U.S. is spiraling out of control just as states push to curtail lock-downs and resume business. The Trump Administration has failed to foresee, plan for, and effectively manage the worsening crisis. Worst; millions of out-of-work Americans are weeks away from homelessness – still waiting for their much-needed stimulus checks which are mired in ever deepening government bureaucracy.

The federal government ordered 100,000 new COVID-19 body bags, in what officials described as preparations for a “worst case” scenario. The giant order last week for “human remains pouches” comes as more than 63,538 Americans have died from COVID-19, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. President Trump on Monday said he expected the pandemic could cost 60,000 to 70,000 lives in the U.S. At the same time, some state governors have moved to start reopening businesses, citing encouraging trends of slowing infection rates. The order for 100,000 body bags, costing $5.1 million, was placed April 21 by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, federal contracting databases show. The supplier, a small California company, is supposed to deliver the bags by May 4, according to the contracting data.

A FEMA spokeswoman said the agency has been focused on a “worst possible case national scenario” from the start of the response effort. “In order to meet the worst-case demand models, FEMA initiated a broad range of acquisition contracts to augment available stocks and produce more human-remains pouches for future requirements should they be needed,” she said. The Defense Department earlier this month said that FEMA asked it to provide 100,000 body bags for civilian use, Bloomberg News reported. The latest purchase is separate from that request, the agency said.

The spokeswoman said the agency has allocated shipments from the earlier DOD contract to hot spots, determined by mortality rates and state requests. She said newer orders are to prepare “should there be any fall resurgence or need to respond to other disasters.” FEMA took over pandemic response coordination from the U.S. Health and Human Services Department in mid-March, and since then has signed more than 100 contracts for items such as personal protective equipment, Covid-19 test kits and diapers for food banks, contracting data shows.  –WSJ

Elderly falling in alarming numbers: The number of nursing homes publicly reporting cases of COVID-19 has doubled in the past week, with more than 1 in 6 facilities nationwide now acknowledging infections among residents or staff, a Washington Post analysis of state and federal data found. The rise is driven in part by newly released information about previous novel coronavirus infections from states including Michigan, Maryland, Kentucky and South Carolina. Some states have not yet publicly released the names of affected nursing homes.

In five states – Maryland, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Georgia and New Jersey – the virus has struck a majority of nursing homes, the data shows. In New Jersey, second only to New York in total number of confirmed coronavirus cases, health officials have reported infections at 80 percent of the state’s homes.  –The Hour

Wave of fear as Germany faces having to bring back strict lock-downs, as COVID-19 cases surge just days after easing them

GERMANY faces the prospect of returning to a stricter lock-down after a surge in coronavirus infections and deaths. The country has slowly been easing its lock-down after faring much better than its European neighbors as a result of an aggressive policy of mass testing. But the country’s virus reproduction rate – known as “R” – which measures how many people the average person with COVID-19 infects has bounced back to just below one. That means one person with the virus infects one other on average and earlier this month, the rate was at 0.7. Germany saw the overall number of coronavirus cases grow by 1,018 on Monday and 1,144 on Tuesday.

There has also been a steady rise in the number of deaths from 117 on April 25 to 188 on April 28 and the country has already been planning for a second wave of killer coronavirus.  Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned if they R rate increases even slightly above 1 then the country’s health service faces being overwhelmed. “If we get to a point where each patient is infecting 1.1 people, then by October we will be back at the limits of our health system in terms of intensive-care beds,” she said. “If we get to 1.2 . . . then we will hit the full capacity of our health system as early as July.” She has urged Germans to show endurance and discipline to get through the coronavirus pandemic that is “still at the beginning.”

Merkel is worried that Germans are relaxing their social distancing efforts after the federal and regional governments agreed to reopen some shops this week. “We are on thin ice, the thinnest ice even,” the Chancellor told the Bundestag lower house of parliament. “We are still far from out of the woods. We are not living in the final phase of the pandemic, but still at the beginning.” Lothar Wieler, president of the Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases, also urged caution. “Let’s ensure we can continue to defend this success we have achieved together,” he told a regular briefing. “We don’t want the number of cases to rise again. Let’s, insofar as is possible, stay at home, let’s stick to the reduced contact.”  –The Sun

A secular world that has never taken responsibility for its own actions will have to learn the painful lesson that everything in life requires a sacrifice. To go back to work early may result not only in more deaths, but it could also reign in a more austere national quarantine system if COVID-19 cases begin rising precipitously.

Singapore reopening also failed: Fears have resurfaced about the ability of coronavirus to surge again after lock-downs are eased, as Singapore confirmed a sharp rise in new infections. One of the worst-hit countries when the virus first spread from China in January, Singapore’s strict surveillance and quarantine regime helped slow the outbreak, but recent rises in locally transmitted cases have raised fresh concerns. Singapore reported 142 new infections on April 8, 2020. Forty of the new cases were linked to foreign worker dormitories. Tens of thousands of blue-collar foreign workers live in close quarters in the city state. Countries around the globe are grappling with the complex logistics of when and how to loosen lock-down restrictions to allow economies to recover while also avoiding a second major outbreak.  –The Guardian

A second lock-down for the U.S. would be catastrophic. It could easily span to the end of the year, as the worst of the flu and the cold season in the U.S. generally hits between fall and winter. A second shutdown could also be even more draconian – requiring anything from martial law to food rationing.  

U.S. headed for ‘a bad fall and winter’ if unprepared for a 2nd wave of COVID-19, Fauci warns – 72,000 deaths by August

A second round of the coronavirus is ‘inevitable,’ the nation’s leading epidemiologist says, but just how bad it is will depend on the progress the U.S. makes in the coming months. “If by that time we have put into place all of the countermeasures that you need to address this, we should do reasonably well,” Dr. Anthony Fauci said. “If we don’t do that successfully, we could be in for a bad fall and a bad winter.”

If states begin lifting restrictions too early, Fauci says he predicts the country could see a rebound of the virus that would “get us right back in the same boat that we were a few weeks ago,” adding that the country could see many more deaths than are currently predicted. So far, more than 1 million Americans have been infected and at least 58,355 have died. A leading model predicts more than 72,000 people will die in the U.S. by early August.

Being able to test for the virus, track cases and isolate every infected American will be key factors in ensuring that second wave isn’t as deadly, Fauci says. The U.S. continues to lag behind in testing, according to a new report by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The nation has performed 16.4 tests per 1,000 people, according to the report. Spain and Italy, with the second and third highest number of cases after the US, have conducted 22.3 and 29.7 tests per 1,000 people respectively.

Fauci says the federal government needs to provide strategic guidance and assistance to help states up their number of conducted tests. He hopes he can guarantee everyone who needs a test can get one by the end of May or early June. “The truth is that we’re going in the right direction,” he said. “But we need to continue to partner in a very active collaborative way with the states, we need to help them the same way they need to do the execution.” –CNN

U.S. now has one-third of all the coronavirus cases on the planet – 70 deaths reported in one veteran’s home

The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States passed 1 million on Tuesday as the death toll climbed to more than 58,000 nationwide, according to a tally from Johns Hopkins University. There have been over 3 million cases worldwide and more than 216,000 deaths globally. Nearly 70 residents sickened with the coronavirus have died at a Massachusetts home for aging veterans, as state and federal officials try to figure out what went wrong in the deadliest known outbreak at a long-term care facility in the U.S.

While the death toll at the state-run Holyoke Soldiers’ Home continues to climb, federal officials are investigating whether residents were denied proper medical care and the state’s top prosecutor is deciding whether to bring legal action. “It’s horrific,” said Edward Lapointe, whose father-in-law lives at the home and had a mild case of the virus. “These guys never had a chance.”

Sixty-eight veteran residents who tested positive for the virus have died, officials said Tuesday, and it’s not known whether another person who died had COVID-19. Another 82 residents and 81 employees have tested positive. The home’s superintendent, who’s been placed on administrative leave, has defended his response and accused state officials of falsely claiming they were unaware of the scope of the problem there.  –CBS News

Spain has the second highest number of cases with at least 232,000. More than 56,400 Americans have died with COVID-19 – an average of about 2,000 a day this month. The number of deaths is thought to be higher as state public health officials warned shortages of trained workers and materials has limited testing capacity. About 30% of the entire country’s cases have occurred in New York state, followed by New Jersey, Massachusetts, California and Pennsylvania.

More than 74,000 Americans are now predicted to die by 4 August – a stark increase from a 22 April forecast of more than 67,600, according to the University of Washington’s predictive model which is often cited by White House officials. With the world’s third-largest population, the US has around five times as many cases as the next hardest-hit countries of Spain, Italy and France. However, it has about 30 infections per 10,000 people compared to Spain’s 48, and the US figure is also lower than Belgium, Switzerland and Italy.

China, where COVID-19 originated in December last year, has nearly 84,000 confirmed cases and 4,637 recorded deaths from the disease, although that number is expected to be higher. The US has the highest number of coronavirus deaths in the world and it now exceeds the total number of Americans killed in the 1950-53 Korean War, which was 36,516. However, the number falls far short of the deaths from Spanish flu, which began in 1918 and killed 675,000 Americans, according to US authorities.  –Sky News

Nightmares, dreams, and many frightening things: COVID-19 “infecting our dreams” sabotages sleep worldwide

For millions of people around the world dealing with the coronavirus pandemic, sleep brings no relief. The horrors of COVID-19, and the surreal and frightening ways it has upended daily life, are infecting dreams and exposing feelings of fear, loss, isolation and grief that transcend culture, language and national boundaries. Everyone from a college teacher in Pakistan to a mall cashier in Canada to an Episcopalian priest in Florida is confronting the same daytime demon. Each is waking up in a sweat in the dead of night. Experts say humanity has rarely experienced “collective dreaming” on such a broad scale in recorded history — and certainly never while also being able to share those nightmares in real time.

“It’s that alarming feeling of when you wake up and think, ‘Thank heavens I woke up,’” said Holly Smith, an elementary school librarian in Detroit. “Once it hits your dreams, you think, ‘Great, now I can’t even escape there.’” The psychological toll is staggering, particularly for health care workers whose dreams show similarities to those of combat veterans and 9/11 responders, said Deirdre Barrett, a Harvard University professor who is surveying COVID dreamers worldwide. She has collected 6,000 dream samples from about 2,400 people. So many people are sharing accounts of dreams online that there’s a Twitter account dedicated to gathering them in a virtual library under the handle “I Dream of COVID.”

“As far as I know, no one has dream samples from the flu pandemic of 1918 — and that would probably be the most comparable thing,” said Barrett, who has studied the dreams of 9/11 survivors and British prisoners of war in World War II. “Now we just all have our smartphones by our bed, so you can just reach over and speak it or type it down. Recording our dreams has never been easier.” The dreams are also exposing what is bothering us the most about the pandemic. The themes seem universal.

Dreams of a safe place suddenly overtaken by the virus speak to contagion’s terrifying invisibility, says Cathy Caruth, a professor at Cornell University who has studied trauma for 30 years. Pandemic dreams, she says, are reminiscent of the experience of Hiroshima survivors, who worried about invisible radiation exposure, and also of some nightmares described by Vietnam veterans. “They seem to be in part about things that are hard to grasp, what it means that anybody can be a threat and you can be a threat to everybody,” Caruth said.   –AP

Alien invaders swarm of 19 mysterious ‘alien’ asteroids lurking near Jupiter from another star system discovered

A GROUP of 19 “alien” asteroids lurking between Jupiter and Neptune may have come from another star system, according to scientists. The findings come more than two years after astronomers spotted the first interstellar visitor, the asteroid known as ‘Oumuamua.’ According to the scientists, unlike ‘Oumuamua, these space rocks have been orbiting the Sun for more than 4.5billion years, since the birth of the Solar System. The asteroids, part of a group of space objects known as Centaurs, may have been orbiting another star billions of years ago when stars were much closer to each other.

Fathi Namouni, of Observatoire de la Cote d’Azur in France and lead author of the study, said: “The close proximity of the stars meant that they felt each other’s gravity much more strongly in those early days than they do today. This enabled asteroids to be pulled from one star system to another.”

Dr. Namouni and co-author Maria Helena Morais, of the Universidade Estadual Paulista in Brazil, ran computer simulations going back in time to the days when the Solar System was still forming. The simulations revealed the asteroids were orbiting the Sun on a plane perpendicular to planetary motion at that time. These objects were also found to be located far from the disc that gave rise to the planets and other asteroids within the Solar System. These two observations indicate the asteroids were captured from another stellar system, the researchers said.  –The Sun

Tallest volcano in Eurasia erupts in Russia’s Far East, spewing ash 7,000m into the skies

The eruption of the Klyuchevskaya Sopka volcano in Russia’s Kamchatka has created spectacular scenes, producing rivers of lava and massive smoke clouds – but scientists worry that the resulting ash cloud could disrupt air traffic. The latest activity within the steep symmetrical cone of the volcano – the highest in Eurasia – blew ash some 7,000 meters into the air on Monday, the Emergencies Ministry said. Klyuchevskaya Sopka, at 4,649 meters in height, was effectively inactive for three years before it started spewing lava again last October – and the smoldering eruption has continued to some degree ever since.

The Kamchatka Peninsula is a remote, yet picturesque, area in Russia’s Far East, and there are no cities or towns within close proximity of the clouds of ash pumping out of the volcano. However, researchers at Russia’s Academy of Sciences (RAS) are still closely monitoring the eruption, as it could potentially cause significant air traffic disruptions. Civilian flights might be grounded due to Covid-19, but the most essential cargo is still being delivered by plane. “Ash trails from the volcano can stretch thousands of kilometers and cross aviation routes,” so being able to predict where the cloud goes is “extremely important,” Aleksey Ozerov, the head of the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology at the Far Eastern Branch of RAS, told RT’s Ruptly video agency.  –RT