New report says pandemic could last for two years – and may not subside until 70% of the population has immunity

000000 Pandemic Years

As coronavirus restrictions around the world are being lifted, a new report warns the pandemic that has already killed more than 230,000 people likely won’t be contained for two years. The modeling study from the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota also says that about 70% of people need to be immune in order to bring the virus to a halt. For the study, experts looked at eight major influenza pandemics dating back to the 1700s, as well as data about the new coronavirus, to help forecast how COVID-19 may spread over the coming months and years. Out of the eight past flu pandemics, scientists said seven had a second substantial peak about six months after the first one. Additionally, some had “smaller waves of cases over the course of 2 years” after the initial outbreak. 

“A key factor in their prediction for the current pandemic revolves around herd immunity, which refers to the community-wide resistance to the spread of a contagious disease that results when a high percentage of people are immune to it, either through vaccination or prior exposure. The length of the pandemic will likely be 18 to 24 months, as herd immunity gradually develops in the human population,” the report says. “Given the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2” — the virus that causes COVID-19 — “60% to 70% of the population may need to be immune to reach a critical threshold of herd immunity to halt the pandemic.” It will take time to reach that point, since data from blood tests show only a small fraction of the overall population has been infected so far, and a possible vaccine is still months if not a year or more away. It is not yet clear whether people who’ve recovered from the infection will be immune or how long such protection would last.

The report lays out several possible scenarios, including one in which a larger wave of illnesses may happen in the fall or winter of 2020 and then subsequent smaller waves in 2021. The researchers say this model — similar to the pattern seen in the devastating 1918 Spanish flu pandemic — would “require the reinstitution of mitigation measures in the fall in an attempt to drive down spread of infection and prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed.” Two other scenarios in the report involve either recurring peaks and valleys of outbreaks, or smaller waves of illness over the next two years.   –CBS News

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5 Responses to New report says pandemic could last for two years – and may not subside until 70% of the population has immunity

  1. Joseph Repas says:

    So they are flattening the curve so far that herd immunity will not be established and will to there delight be a problem for the next year instead of two months.
    sorry to say but I am SO SICK of these A hole doctors and main stream media people that have done nothing but contradict themselves every week as to what to do; not to do. I am not talking about the medical people that are truly trying their darndest to heal people but the big pharmaceuticals that are trying to make sure that no one gets healed until they create the vaccine that will cull 65% of the population [ slowly so few realize it was the vaccine causing the deaths ]. I might as well say this while here as well; getting tired of the sappy ads on TV about stay home, wash your hands stay away…we are here for you.. we care… GAG!

    Liked by 1 person

    • It’s almost indifference at this point. As the virus death toll has ramped up – the US response has ramped down. The Federal government closed drive-through testing stations and states have eased lock-down restrictions. As long as this virus is only killing the poor and elderly; there will not be a sense of urgency on the National level. The rich and famous (cradled in safety) are hold-up in their bunkers, mansions, and cellars busy making whimsical public service announcements. Maybe the 2nd wave will open more eyes – as it did with the Spanish Flu of 1918 when it began killing the rich and infamous.

      Liked by 1 person

    • niebo says:

      Preach it, Joseph. “Flattening the curve” initially was a coping mechanism to keep the hospitals from becoming overwhelmed (because the US does not have enough ventilators/ICU beds) but is tantamount to extending the duration of the outbreak . . . which is convenient IF (oh, idk, a totalitarian power-structure WANTS) widespread bankruptcy and government dependence is the goal.

      At 2.8 beds per thousand, the US in the bottom third of beds, per capita:

      . https://www.axios.com/coronavrus-hospital-beds-shortage-63d0e1c3-de4b-4199-834c-477403cfaf06.html

      BUT the subsequent “lockdowns” have served other purposes . . . widespread bankruptcy, government dependence, and demoralization of the population. Not to mention supply-chain disruptions, food shortages, and widespread protests. To quote Gerald Celente . . . “When people lose everything, they lose it.”

      I’m glad my youngest child is a mid-teen. If this drags on – as they are “warning” – for two years, the entire world will be the state of Bradbury’s “The Sound of Thunder”.

      Like

  2. Judy Clarke says:

    Sorry to say but they wont get immunity

    Liked by 1 person

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