Yes, you’ll likely get it – Harvard epidemiologist predicts most of the world will be infected by next year


The Harvard epidemiology professor Marc Lipsitch is exacting in his diction, even for an epidemiologist. Twice in our conversation he started to say something, then paused and said, “Actually, let me start again.” So it’s striking when one of the points he wanted to get exactly right was this: “I think the likely outcome is that it will ultimately not be containable.”

Containment is the first step in responding to any outbreak. In the case of COVID-19, the possibility (however implausible) of preventing a pandemic seemed to play out in a matter of days. Starting in January, China began cordoning off progressively larger areas, radiating outward from Wuhan City and eventually encapsulating some 100 million people. People were barred from leaving home, and lectured by drones if they were caught outside. Nonetheless, the virus has now been found in 30 countries.

Despite the apparent ineffectiveness of such measures—relative to their inordinate social and economic cost, at least—the crackdown continues to escalate. Under political pressure to “stop” the virus, last Thursday the Chinese government announced that officials in the Hubei province would be going door to door, testing people for fevers and looking for signs of illness, then sending all potential cases to quarantine camps. But even with the ideal containment, the virus’s spread may have been inevitable. Testing people who are already extremely sick is an imperfect strategy if people can spread the virus without even feeling bad enough to stay home from work.

Lipsitch predicts that, within the coming year, some 40 to 70 percent of people around the world will be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19. But he clarifies emphatically, this does not mean that all will have severe illnesses. “It’s likely that many will have mild disease, or may be asymptomatic,” he said. As with influenza, which is often life-threatening to people with chronic health conditions and of older age, most cases pass without medical care. (Overall, around 14 percent of people with influenza have no symptoms.) Lipsitch is far from alone in his belief that this virus will continue to spread widely. The emerging consensus among epidemiologists is that the most likely outcome of this outbreak is a new seasonal disease—a fifth “endemic” coronavirus. With the other four, people are not known to develop long-lasting immunity. If this one follows suit, and if the disease continues to be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”  –The Atlantic

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This entry was posted in Civilizations unraveling, Disease outbreak, Earth Changes, Emerging disease threat, Environmental Threat, High-risk potential hazard zone, Human behavioral change after disaster, New virus reported, Pestilence Watch, Quarantine, Time - Event Acceleration and tagged . Bookmark the permalink.

12 Responses to Yes, you’ll likely get it – Harvard epidemiologist predicts most of the world will be infected by next year

  1. James says:

    I love that you’re posting Chris Martensons videos. I started watching him when he first started reporting on COVID-19 a month ago, and I’ve been following his updates everyday since. I’m happy that you’re back. I got an e-mail from Extinction Protocol earlier this month, and I was like what the heck! It’s been 3 years lmao. Thanks for coming back and keeping us informed. 🙂

    Liked by 2 people

  2. Dennis E. says:

    One major deterrent is a healthy immune system. it attacks the lungs. Face masks do not do that although they provide a level of protection perhaps from the common cold, some cases of influenza and pollution. We have seen pictures of people in China, lying on the street,dead, allegedly killed from being exposed to the virus. I question that. It seemed that upon immediate contact to the virus, the person died. If the person expired was exposed to a nerve agent such as VX, I would believe that. Not downplaying the seriousness of the issue.

    How do you treat coronavirus?

    Rest and avoid overexertion.
    Drink enough water.
    Avoid smoking and smoky areas.
    Take acetaminophen, ibuprofen or naproxen to reduce pain and fever.
    Use a clean humidifier or cool mist vaporizer.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. trishgalga says:

    Thank you, EP, for this up-to-date info on Covid-19. I’ve been passing some of it along on FB.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. eric blair says:

    Where is Yoshiro Kawaoka ?……


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