Report from WHO disease modeling team estimates two-thirds of global coronavirus cases have gone undetected

11 Pandemic

A new report from a WHO infectious disease modeling team based at Imperial College London is estimating about two-thirds of Covid-19 cases worldwide have gone undetected. The analysis suggests the global spread of the novel coronavirus is significantly greater than the current volume of confirmed cases. “We are starting to see more cases reported from countries and regions outside mainland China with no known travel history or link to Wuhan City,” explains Natsuko Imai, one of the authors on the new report. “Our analysis, which extends and confirms previously released analysis by other groups using flight volumes from Wuhan City and the reported number of COVID-19 cases, demonstrates the importance of surveillance and case detection if countries are to successfully contain the epidemic.”

As of February 23, 2020, there are over 78,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19, the vast majority of which are concentrated in China. Prior studies have suggested most cases present with mild symptoms. Only a small minority of confirmed cases seem to progress into serious pneumonia-like disease, leading some researchers to suggest the virus may have spread wider than current numbers indicate. This new report set out to explore how accurate current country-based surveillance of the disease may be, in relation to the average volume of travelers flying out of the epidemic epicenter in Wuhan, China.

The report concludes it is very likely a number of undetected chains of transmission have begun in many countries across the globe. Director-General of the World Health Organization Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus affirmed this growing concern during a recent WHO briefing. “Although the total number of Covid-19 cases outside China remains relatively small, we are concerned about the number of cases with no clear epidemiological link, such as travel history to China or contact with a confirmed case,” said the Director-General in the February 22nd briefing.

Although the Director-General did state the “window of opportunity for containing this coronavirus is narrowing”, the WHO has not yet classified this outbreak as a pandemic. Less than 2,000 cases have been currently confirmed outside of China, however, as this new report indicates, the viral spread may be broader than the official numbers suggest. Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist from Johns Hopkins University, said last week the spread of the virus already constitutes a global pandemic, despite the WHO’s reluctance to deem it so officially. “I am of the belief … that we are in the early stages of a pandemic,” said Nuzzo. “I think it’s important for us to … talk openly about whether containment of an epidemic is possible, or whether we are exacerbating pandemic spread, because my worry is, we’re diverting resources from the community level.” –News Atlas

Crisis C

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5 Responses to Report from WHO disease modeling team estimates two-thirds of global coronavirus cases have gone undetected

  1. Dennis E. says:

    Question: If people who show no symptoms of the virus are allegedly infecting other people, as in this case, then either the virus was on door knobs, bed rails by an infected person and not necessarily this one. Spread by the same methods as the flu/colds are spread, coughing/sneezing. germs? This seems strange.

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    • People can be asymptomatic and still contagious. Keep in mind the virus has already replicated in the cell and infected the primary host organism. In virology, this is known as “shedding” and it’s quite common. Asymptomatic shedding occurs with the Herpes Simplex Virus 1 and 2.

      Viral shedding refers to the expulsion and release of virus progeny following successful reproduction during a host-cell infection. Once replication has been completed and the host cell is exhausted of all resources in making viral progeny, the viruses may begin to leave the cell by several methods.

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  2. Dennis E. says:

    From Steve Quayle’s web site site from and article by Michael Snyder: Confirmed infections in South Korea have exploded over the last 96 hours from just 30 cases to 602 confirmed cases. Local residents there are scrambling to purchase preparedness supplies, stripping shelves bare and leading to a sense of urgency. Some cities in South Korea have already taken on a “ghost town” vibe, with streets emptied and nearly all community functions shut down.

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  3. Judy Clarke says:

    The COVID-19 once caught, goes into the cells of the hosts body and in some cases, they die from it and in others they regain their health, BUT the virus remains for the rest of their lives in their blood cells, ready to rise again when their immune system is threatened. Meanwhile can infect hundreds, as the virus comes through to their skin when they sweat, that dries and lifts like dust, it goes into their clothes, it can be caught just by walking past them as the dust on their skin swirls behind them when they walk and we can breath in those dust particles, it can also be caught through a kiss, droplet infection through talking, sneezing, coughing etc, tears, urine, faeces, they are infectious for the rest of their lives, spreading it wherever they go, although otherwise themselves seeming asymptomatic. When they are in an area of 5G, the virus responds to it somehow and speeds up its reproduction capability. If in doubt, do your research into when Wuhan went crazy with cases, – 2 weeks after the first few cases their 5G began. its now uncontainable. Prove me wrong.
    The victims of the disease believe they are well and seem happy and unaffected and can breath normally, but they are infectious and spreading it for the rest of their lives wherever they go. its a pandemic in the biggest and worst way possible and those responsible for this must be punished. The Wuhan lab where it was created was funded by 2 major countries outside of China……………… you will be very surprised, but within 24hrs of the outbreak a sonic boom resounded over Wuhan that thousands heard, as the lab was blown up and all evidence destroyed. Do they honestly think the rest of humanity are brain dead.

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