New study reveals the possibility of hurricanes ‘unlike anything you’ve seen in history’

Gray Swan Hurricane
September 2015CLIMATE Last week, the nation focused its attention on the 10-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina, the most destructive hurricane in U.S. history. As bad as the storm was, though, it wasn’t the worst storm that could have possibly hit New Orleans. That’s true of many, many other places, too. And now, in a new study in Nature Climate Change, Princeton’s Ning Lin and MIT’s Kerry Emanuel demonstrate that when it comes to three global cities in particular — Tampa, Fla., Cairns, Australia, and Dubai, United Arab Emirates — there could come a storm that is much worse than anything in recent memory (or in any memory).
Granted, these theoretical storms are also highly unlikely to occur — in some cases, they are 1-in-10,000-year events, or even rarer. The researchers refer to these possible storms as “gray swans,” riffing on the concept of a “black swan” event, an unpredictable catastrophe, or highly impactful event. A “gray swan,” by contrast, can indeed be predicted, even if it is extremely rare. The purpose of the study is “to raise awareness of what a very low probability, very high impact hurricane event might look like,” said Emanuel. The gray swan storms were generated by a computer model that “coupled” together, in the researchers’ parlance, a very high-resolution hurricane model with a global climate model. That allowed the researchers to populate the simulated world with oodles of different storms.
“When you do hundreds and hundreds of thousands of events, you’re going to see hurricanes that are unlike anything you’ve seen in history,” said Emanuel, a key theoretician behind the equations determining the “maximum potential intensity” of a hurricane in a given climate. Indeed, he has published in the past that a theoretical “hypercane” with winds approaching 500 miles per hour is possible in scenarios where an asteroid hits the Earth and radically heats up ocean waters, far beyond their normal temperature.
So what did the researchers see? Let’s take Tampa Bay, first. It hasn’t been hit by a major hurricane since 1921 — but that storm drove a 3- to 3.5-meter (10- to 11-foot) storm surge and caused dramatic damage. Earlier, in 1848, another storm produced a 4.6-meter surge (about 15 feet). Why is Tampa Bay so vulnerable? Check out any good map that shows the water depth (the bathymetry) around the Florida peninsula. It’s deep off the east coast. But there’s an extraordinarily broad continental shelf off the west coast. And although the city of Tampa, proper, sits at the head of Tampa Bay, relatively far from the mouth and well removed from the barrier islands that get battered by the waves from the Gulf of Mexico, that’s a more vulnerable spot than you’d think.
“One can get much larger surges where the offshore waters are shallow, as is true along the west, but not the east coast of Florida. Also, surges can amplify by being funneled into bays,” Emanuel said Monday in an e-mail. The new method allows the researchers to show that a worse storm than these historical examples is possible, especially with sea level rise and global warming. They simulated 2,100 possible Tampa Bay hurricanes in the current climate, and then 3,100 each for three time periods (2006 through 2036, 2037 through 2067, and 2068 through 2098) in an unchecked global warming scenario.
In the current climate, the study found that a 5.9-meter (19-foot) storm surge is possible, in a strong Category 3 hurricane following a similar track to Tampa’s classic 1921 and 1848 storms. Moreover, in a late 21st century climate with global warming run amok, the worst-case scenario generated by the model included a very different storm track, moving north along Florida’s Gulf Coast and then swerving inland at Tampa, that generated an 11.1-meter (nearly 37-foot) surge. –Washington Post
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17 Responses to New study reveals the possibility of hurricanes ‘unlike anything you’ve seen in history’

  1. Ryan Hunt says:

    We might get a chance to see the realization of the computer model indicating a 500 mph wind velocity hurricane do to an asteroid impacting the ocean sooner than we think.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Professor says:

    This is what HAARP and Geoengineering are for, to bring devastation and destruction upon the earth and make it appear that god or his judgement is coming on us. This is why it’s called a weather weapon. Strange thing is that certain parts of the planet are not experiencing any of this stuff like North Africa, where all the storms go around it like there is a force field protecting it.

    Like

    • Cousin of a Starchild says:

      As my cousin in the intelligence field says:
      “In our attempts to counter act the problems we created for ourselves, we brought forth a new hell storm upon us, and we walk a fine line when playing god. You don’t have to agree to understand. please don’t blame us for doing the best we can with what we got. This generation wasn’t around to speak up when these decision were made. Were not at fault, but will be, if we don’t try. As the world falls apart, where shall you stand? Every one we lose from here on out is one less person to help fix this mess we created for ourselves, and the number of feet to fill these boots is shrinking beyond repair. The cosmic truth that lies within is a choice to understand. forgive those who know not what they do, for they haven’t been shown otherwise yet. the greatest voices of them all are those yet to be heard, so speak to who ever will listen and consider yourself among the blessed if you chose to accept, for a fallacious attempt to present it otherwise is underway, and where shall you stand? The farther you go, the darker it gets, but the brighter the light shines. You’ll only know if you walk the path, and that takes faith. Trust the truth you know to be true. For love is the key”

      In 2102, he told me blue dudes from Gemini, which, as he said, were the future us, from our past, came in a cloud of a mist of intelligent matter, and told him to get the job he currently holds. He CHOSE to do just that. And now hes with CERN. I love his words. “i cant tell you the truth, And im not gonna lie to you. Eat right, Sleep right, Work out, Direct your faith, Pay close attention to your dreams and you;ll be ready for September 28th. Keep a fresh pair of underwear on hand, you’ll thank me later”

      I was told this in march
      Consider this a testament for the open minded

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      • this generation is at fault, like all that have stood before us. We can only end it, if we stand together. Nobody but Adam, Eve, and Satan and God, were here when it started, all but the last are way responsible, all the way to us!

        Like

  3. Donald Wheeler says:

    i live across tampa bay in Pinellas County, St.Pete Clearwater area. we had 21 straight days of rain which flooded everything. now a 5 minute rain storm will flood the streets. tropical storm erika would have done alot of damage. neighborhoods in polk county along some of the rivers are still in ankle deep water, over a month later, even with all the sunshine. in those 21 days of rain, one of the bridges leading to Tampa was closed due to flooding. that’s our evacuation route. and that wasnt even a tropical storm that pissed all over us. what are we supposed to due if a major storm comes and our evacuation routes are closed? serious questions. FEMA said they’ll get back to me on that.

    what do you guys think?

    the only silver lining i see is that everyone has boats or jet skies, and we will help each other out in that time of need.

    god is love
    love is the key

    Like

    • suez62 says:

      I seen a US Navy map a while back,somewhere on the internet, predicting the future USA. The whole east coast and most of the west coast was GONE! Plus the USA was split into at the Mississippi with some states in the Midwest were gone also, like MO. Ill. etc. …Hmm, why would the Navy have a map like this???? Strange I thought!

      Like

      • Dennis E. says:

        Earth changes and perhaps and the CIA has used what is termed remote viewing, look it up.
        Also, many people do not know, in the mid-90’s the government ordered a large amount
        of food and tents and for a while the ability to obtain #10 cans was limited.
        This about the same time, people started to discover casket liners in open fields.

        Like

      • suez62 says:

        Dennis E. Hi Dennis, I don’t know if your a Christian of not, but…I looked up Remote Viewing, and in the short time I read, I would label that as nothing but Familiar Spirits at work in people. Familiar Spirits, just in case you don’t know, would be a demonic spirit, whispering in the ears or mind of the person who claims to have the knowledge, to see or remember things. Nothing more than demonic information, which can be very real and a somewhat very truthful at times. This is how people “channel” supposedly dead people…this is also how many people believe they lived hundred or thousands of years before. The familiar spirits are giving them the information, because after all, they have been around since God created…:) So, they have all that information.

        Like

    • Dennis E. says:

      relocation, if possible

      Like

  4. chrissy says:

    well Alvin even though this story was about tampa, I’m still a little worry every year because I live in Miami, fl and I remember when I was a kid going through hurricane Andre, it was really scary and my home got a little damage but my grand parents house roof caved in. And now that I’m older I work at a hospital where you have to chose team A or team B, which means you work before the storm hits or you work after the storm. Which is why every year hurricane season makes me a little nerves. Anyway thought I sure one of the problems with living in florida to you.

    Like

    • I wouldn’t lose any sleep over this. I think we have far greater threat potentials to worry about than hypothetical storms.

      Liked by 1 person

      • suez62 says:

        We have a lot of things to consider now days. Luk 21:25 And there shall be signs in the sun, and in the moon, and in the stars; and upon the earth distress of nations, with perplexity; the sea and the waves roaring;
        Luk 21:26 Men’s hearts failing them for fear, and for looking after those things which are coming on the earth: for the powers of heaven shall be shaken.
        Mat 24:4 And Jesus answered and said unto them, Take heed that no man deceive you.
        Mat 24:5 For many shall come in my name, saying, I am Christ; and shall deceive many.
        Mat 24:6 And ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet.
        Mat 24:7 For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in divers places.
        Mat 24:8 All these are the beginning of sorrows.
        Lots of things to look forward too. 🙂

        Liked by 1 person

  5. Tormented Renter says:

    You’re just saying this because I’m looking to buy a house in Tampa.. aren’t you.

    Liked by 2 people

  6. Stan Armbruster says:

    I can’t believe you are commenting on “unchecked global warming” since it is was proven to be fake/false science. Stan

    Like

  7. dongoliveros says:

    Super typhoon Yolanda

    Like

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