Biblically grim: Yale team foresees 90,000 deaths in one Liberian county alone by December 15

October 2014 LIBERIAA large influx of international aid is needed, and soon, if West Africa is to avoid tens of thousands of deaths from the widening Ebola crisis, a team of Yale University researchers predict. Using a specially designed mathematical model, the researchers looked at the possible future of the outbreak in just one densely populated county of hard-hit Liberia — Montserrado County, home to the capital city of Monrovia. The researchers said that if international aid isn’t delivered to Liberia in sufficient time and quantity, by Dec. 15 Montserrado County will have more than 170,000 cases of Ebola — 12 percent of its population — and more than 90,000 deaths. However, if the international community ramps up efforts by Oct. 31, almost 98,000 of those cases could be avoided. “Our predictions highlight the rapidly closing window of opportunity for controlling the outbreak and averting a catastrophic toll of new Ebola cases and deaths in the coming months,” study senior author Alison Galvani, professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health, said in a university news release. “Although we might still be within the midst of what will ultimately be viewed as the early phase of the current outbreak, the possibility of averting calamitous repercussions from an initially delayed and insufficient response is quickly eroding,” she added.
What’s needed, according to the Yale team, are better diagnosis, treatment and prevention efforts on the ground in Liberia and in the two other countries affected by Ebola, Guinea and Sierra Leone. Essential elements include more Ebola treatment center beds, a fivefold increase in the rapidity at which new Ebola cases are identified, and the distribution of protective kits to households containing anyone already infected to cut the rate of Ebola’s spread, the researchers said. Even if international interventions were to be delayed until Nov. 15, about 54,000 new cases in Montserrado County might still be averted, the researchers said. According to the latest estimates from the World Health Organization, about 10,000 cases of Ebola have so far been reported in the three affected countries, and more than 4,900 people have died. Time is of the essence, the researchers said, to prevent the outbreak from exploding into something much less containable. “The current global health strategy is woefully inadequate to stop the current volatile Ebola epidemic,” study co-author Dr. Frederick Altice, professor of internal medicine and public health at Yale, said in the news release. “At a minimum, capable logisticians are needed to construct a sufficient number of Ebola treatment units in order to avoid the unnecessary deaths of tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of people.” The study, funded by the U.S. National Institutes of Health, was published online Oct. 23 in The Lancet Infectious Diseases. –Healthy Day
Facebook TEPR banner
This entry was posted in Black Swan Event, Civilizations unraveling, Dark Ages, Disease outbreak, Earth Changes, Earth Watch, Emerging disease threat, Environmental Threat, Extinction Threat, Hazardous chemical exposure, Health guideliness issued, High-risk potential hazard zone, Human behavioral change after disaster, Infrastructure collapse, New virus reported, Pestilence Watch, Potential Earthchange hotspot, Prophecies referenced, Quarantine, Social unrest, Time - Event Acceleration. Bookmark the permalink.

18 Responses to Biblically grim: Yale team foresees 90,000 deaths in one Liberian county alone by December 15

  1. Night terror news says:

    Awful. Just awful

    Like

  2. Barb Wire says:

    Playing Russian roulette with Ebola is totally uncalled for. 13% of the infected with Ebola do not show or manifest the primary symptoms of Ebola. It only takes one infected person to infect others on contact. Then it takes off and multiplies like wild fire.

    The only way to effectively handle Ebola is to isolate it at the source and let it burn out.

    Americans are being played for stupid.

    Knowing the political motto of never letting a good crisis go to waste. My understanding from what I have seen and heard tells me that people like Obama and his cronies are going to make sure they use this crisis to the max at the expense of the African and American people.
    It appears more and more that Obama lunacy is a permeated attack to infect and kill Americans. The economy is already on a down hill slope to being broke. Ebola could well finish the job.

    What do you want to …do? Rant or seek to become united with other like minded individuals and organize? The only way to handle this is through numbers. People need to organize, only then do they have the power to demand change.

    Does anyone know right from wrong? The only way to handle Ebola is to isolate it. (Stop it before it comes into the country).
    The bottom line is that not closing the borders and allowing open flights to come into the US from countries infected with Ebola, plus risking the lives of over 4000 of our solders sending them to play nurse is not only wrong it is criminal. Risking the lives of millions of people while playing politics rather than protecting the people is wrong and criminal. I am tired of this political BS, lying to the people and will call it what it is. Wrong and criminal. These politicians need to be held accountable if there is a pandemic in this country because of their foolish games. It is time for the people to make a stand. Unless you draw a red line to stop this miss use of power these politicians will own you. When these people who run the country find out they are going to be held accountable lets see how long it takes them to do the things needed for the protection of the people

    Liked by 1 person

    • George says:

      You make some good points however, “(Stop it before it comes to this country)”, is not going to work at this late date….It’s here now to stay. What should have been done wasn’t.

      Like

    • jim says:

      Hey Barb Wire Don’t you realize Americans are about the dumbest people on earth. For them to pass a travel ban would take months maybe years although I imagine if Obuma wanted to he could use an executive order to do it. Yes let them mass protest then they’ed all be in one spot easy pickens for the police to haul away to a fema camp. Believe it when you hear the land of the free isn’t free anymore. Have a plan and don’t be afraid to follow through with it.

      Like

  3. Irene C says:

    The biggest problem (here in the U.S.) is that no one is prepared for a major pandemic. Ebola was happening in some far-off, 3rd world country. Everyone had that “it will never happen here” mentality. The CDC’s priority was to make sure that everyone stopped smoking and that transfats were removed from restaurants. The politics ran rampant. And even now, it’s not being taken seriously and medical staffs all over are unprepared, understaffed, and may soon be overwhelmed. Well folks, it’s here in this country now. Whether it will become a pandemic in this country is yet to be seen. If this isn’t handled correctly, which I fear it won’t be, we will end up with panic from the people and over-reacting from the officials. The outcome won’t be pretty.
    Maranatha

    Liked by 1 person

    • Dennis E. says:

      Hi Irene……..C. Glad to see you posting again………

      Like

      • Irene C says:

        Thanks Dennis E. I’ve had a busy year. But although I’ve been reading the blog, I hope to have more time to commenting once again now that winter is around the corner and I’ll be hibernating.🙂

        Like

  4. B. J, Whitt says:

    We need to do Ellis Island all over again…..where people entering the County are quarantined until they are proven safe to enter the Country. (I know, I know…..we do things by airplanes now. this will be hard on business, but I think they will have to think about people for a while) Particularly those who are traveling from that area. Although, I feel so sorry for these people, I would be reluctant to go to them to treat them, for fear of getting the disease myself. Plus, I would likely be putting my family at risk, as well. My sympathies/compliments and concern for the brave people who do this anyway. What is the solution? What was the solution for the black plague? …..or Polio? Swine flu…..Bird Flu? It’s going to take time to develop the method to cure. It does not and will not happen overnight. To Barb, Why is it that every thing is turned into political bashing? Your fears out way your logic.

    Like

  5. Janice says:

    I get that apparently the global world does not see Ebola in Africa as their problem.  Let us wait & see how utterly uncontainable it becomes.

    An African-Free world is impossible as is an Ebola-free Europe, UK, US, China, South America, Asia, etc.   But let’s wait & see how many Africans Ebola can kill off before we act.

    Maybe Ebola will burn itself out.  Maybe a vaccine is discovered. Maybe not.  Oh woe will be us as we wring our hands in search of someway to save ourselves…if Ebola rages on.

    Like

  6. Mark Gabrielson says:

    Was this photo necessary?

    Like

All comments are moderated. We reserve the right not to post any comment deemed defamatory, inappropriate, or spam.

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s