Expert predicts 1.2 million deaths if Ebola virus goes airborne

September 2014AFRICA – Econometrics expert Francis Smart has predicted that if the Ebola virus does mutate into an airborne form, 1.2 million people will die from the disease. Smart, from the Michigan State University, published an article in Econometrics by Stimulation in which he outlined the mechanics of his prediction based on the research done by others. Currently the World Health Organization (WHO) has predicted that Ebola will kill 20,000 people within the next six months. Smart argues that this number is based on the assumption that the virus will not mutate into a version of itself which travels though air. Smart used an econometric stimulation model and based his calculations on the prediction of 20,000 infections in six months that the WHO had previously issued. He also looked at the struggles facing the countries that are currently fighting the Ebola virus. Liberia in particular is facing huge issues as far as controlling the spread of disease is concerned. Medical supplies are desperately low, health workers and doctors are contracting the disease themselves, and there is a degree of civil unrest as panic sets in.
The WHO has predicted that six months is optimistic. This is the minimum amount of time that they think is needed in order to stop the disease from spreading. The statement in which they offered the prediction of 20,000 infections was published on Aug. 28, almost three weeks ago. The estimate was made in the assumption that the Ebola outbreak control effort would receive compete international back up and that every step in the plan that the WHO had drawn up to tackle the disease spread would be followed. Should international aid not be sufficient, or the plan not be executed sufficiently, the prediction was that the number of people infected with the virus would be far greater. The prediction was also made under the assumption that the virus would not mutate into an airborne form. This, according to experts such as Michael Osterholm, is a big assumption. Osterholm, Director at Minnesota University’s Center for Infectious Disease research and Policy, explains that viruses do mutate, and to assume that this one will not could be a mistake. Other strains of the Ebola virus, such as Ebola Reston, have previously demonstrated the ability to mutate into airborne versions of themselves. Osterholm says that due to the density of the spread in the most recent outbreak in West Africa, there is the chance that the virus could change itself each time it replicates.
Smart says that death toll numbers based on the more pessimistic opinion that the Ebola virus could mutate and go airborne are much greater. He believes that 20,000 is “vastly too small” and the prediction is “entirely based on effective and well-funded international relief mission..”He went on to predict that by Oct. 24 there will already be over 20,000 cases of the disease, a far shorter time period that the six months that the WHO predicted. Smart continues his analysis to conclude that as many as 4.7 million people will become infected and 1.2 million will die. –Guardian
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17 Responses to Expert predicts 1.2 million deaths if Ebola virus goes airborne

  1. Yeah just waiting to hear its airborne,hmm then what?

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  2. suez62 says:

    Isn’t that what they wanted when they made this stuff in the lab???

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  3. George says:

    To my unscientific mind, “if the Ebola virus does mutate into an airborne form”, statement is nothing more an attempt to prevent total panic amongst the people. I believe that we have crossed that threshold a long time ago. May GOD protect us.

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  4. Holy God. If Ebola goes airborne, how could it possibly be stopped? I read of an experiment where monkeys were placed in a confined area with one monkey carrying the Ebola virus. The monkeys were restricted and not allowed physical contact with each other. All the monkeys in the room contracted Ebola. Question is, is it already airborne? From what I’ve read the Zaire strain is the most deadly—60 to 90% mortality rate. I’m not sure what strain was tested on the monkeys. Imagine a scenario where one person carrying Ebola (Zaire strain airborne) gets on a plane carrying 300 passengers and crew for a 16 hour flight. Then, half of those passengers embark on connecting flights with 250 passengers and crew aboard. We just went from one plane infected with Ebola to 150. Now half the passengers from those 150 planes board another plane… The spread would be exponential. And that doesn’t include those who deplane and get in a cab or board a bus or go to a restaurant or a bar or whatever other confined space. God help us if the Zaire strain goes airborne.

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  5. Roger says:

    Why let it spread? Why take the chance on the rest of the world becoming infected? Do you want to die a horrible death? Or watch a loved one die like that? I think we as a world should vote,on to humanly put down the infected and burn the bodies, so we as a world don’t become infected. This sounds like something out of a horror movie, but this is not a movie, this is our future were talking about and our children’s future.
    I would ban all travel To and from all parts of Africa, and most of all I would secure our southern border with Mexico, that seems to be the front door into the USA.

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    • suez62 says:

      People are not understanding this. This is a man made virus! Made in the lab, to DE-populate the worlds population. Don’t think for a moment they don’t have a cure. The “elite” will not be touched by this, I doubt. They can unleash it anywhere, anytime they choose! Wake up people, this is a planed epidemic!!!

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    • lindeelou says:

      Roger we all know we, the humans, have been warned for 50 years and as we can all still witness today, very rare are the few who actually ‘aimez vous les uns les autres comme je vous ai aimés’.

      So … why should the american borders be closed? And, how well-off are ‘our children’ truly??

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  6. jim says:

    1.2 MILLION MY BUTT THAT’S JUST A DROP IN THE BUCKET

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  7. At least one scientist, Jonas Schmidt-Chanasit of the Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine in Hamburg http://bit.ly/X4TTN9 estimates deaths from fully airborne Ebola would be closer to 5 million. I was reading about the Spanish flu of 1918 in which people were healthy at sunrise and dead at sunset. Spanish flu may have been akin to H1N1. Also 20-40% world population got sick from Spanish flu and 50 MILLION DIED, with 675,000 of those deaths in the US.

    So the 1918 flu had a 2.5% mortality rate”only” vs. the current mortality rate of this Ebola strain which is about 55%. if this Ebola were to go fully airborne like the 1918 flu, and this Ebola’s mortality rate is not 2.5%, but rather 55%, wouldn’t that mean about 3.6 billion people on Earth would die – not 5 million??

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    • Bone Idle says:

      The 1918 Spanish flu epidemic was masked by the first world war. The real toll was probably far higher.

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    • If it goes airborne and the entire mass transportation hub isn’t shut completely down within a day, I don’t see how they could ever get it under control. If it made it into densely populated, underdeveloped nations, like China and India the toll could be tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions, in those countries alone.

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    • aaronwt says:

      The mortality rate is a percentage of the people who get the virus. Everyone would not get the virus. The vast majority of people on the planet would not get it.

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      • Yellow Bird says:

        currently, the vast majority of people EXPOSED have gotten it. multiplied globally… what in the pattern would likely change? without holding out overly large hopes for some sort of random mutation to drastically reduce its virulence…
        if i remember my reading correctly, it took years for the Pandemic Flu (and concurrent Sleeping Encephelitis) to “burn itself out”, and touched most nations of the world by varying degrees of intensity.

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