June 20, 2012 – ECONOMY – We seem to be heading towards an economic downturn equivalent to the Great Depression of the 1930s. This isn’t a secret. The synthesis below is derived from: Lawrence Summers, Nouriel Roubini, Simon Johnson, Niall Ferguson, and Paul Krugman to name just a few. This crisis is not happening quickly. It’s more of a slow-motion train wreck—Greece’s crisis started in 2009. But that leaves a puzzle—why is the American stock market not reacting to obvious warning signs? Greece and Spain already have unemployment rates exceeding 20 percent. If that isn’t a depression, what is? Greece is in very deep trouble. Spain (the Euro’s fourth largest economy) just needed a $125 billion bank bailout. The weaker economies (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, Spain) face severe credit crunches as local banks lose deposits (withdrawn because of credit concerns and fear of forced devaluations following a Euro exit). Serious discussion is already taking place about the demise of the Euro, or even worse the break-up of the European common market—in which case unemployment rates across Europe will exceed 20 percent. National incomes will decline sharply, resulting in large-scale corporate insolvencies, with the crisis spilling over into the U.S. and Asia. The U.S. faces a recession next year if the Budget Control Act takes effect, which is likely if Obama wins and partisan gridlock continues. House Speaker Boehner already announced
that if Obama’s re-elected, the GOP will treat us to another debt ceiling confrontation. If Romney wins, the Democrats (having learnt their lesson from the Republicans) would be as disruptive as possible. If the U.S. faces a major economic crisis triggered by the Euro’s collapse, bipartisan consensus on how to resolve it is unlikely. China’s growth model may be reaching its limit. If the rest of the world’s problem is too much ideology, China’s is arguably the absence of any ideology except kleptocracy. China lacks a functioning legal system. Its officials are disciplined by shadowy communist party entities, rather than accountable to a transparent legal system. Nominally ruling in the name of the proletarian vanguard, China is governed by princelings and kleptocrats, with friction escalating among the kleptocrats. Internationally, another regional war appears increasingly likely in the Middle East. The U.S. and/or Israel might have a military confrontation with Iran, over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The Syrian situation has the potential to become a regional conflict (Syria, Iran and Russia fighting Syrian dissidents supported by some coalition of Saudi Arabia, the U.S., Turkey and other countries). A Middle Eastern war would lead to significant oil price increases, and trigger a global recession (at a minimum). Compared to the financial crisis of 2008, governments everywhere are far more constrained by weaker balance sheets, loss of public trust and crisis fatigue. –Business Insider
Advertisements
SO in other words….we are all in deep doo doo. Is there ANYTHING that can turn this around? No?
LikeLike
It’s all computer trading with some insider trading, that’s why. The stock market is an ILLUSION, and has been for the last 2 years. One more ruse to keep the American public from panic
LikeLike
Finally you are the smartest person to leave a comment. Its all an illusion now stock market what they tell us on news money even what most history books say music is a super big one. Americans dont know that we are just a big secience project created by hitler and dont realize it yet.
LikeLike
Your right. The stock market is now no more than glorified betting shop – a casino.
Deals are now done on the rumor de jour. Money is made on the up and downs of daily fluctuations directly in line with the latest announcement from the Fed, the Euro ECB or the Germans.
Stocks are far and away overvalued for their actual worth.
e.g. Facebook listing 100 times it’s actual value.
Derivatives are the elephant in the room.
LikeLike
I reached the conclusion, a decade ago, that Wal-Street, is nothing but a charade.
Here’s why I think this is.
For an example, take a look at Enron.
The folks who were buying and selling stock in Enron, were essentially, buying “nothing”.
It is like they were buying a fictional product, an illusion, created by ‘perceived value’.
This ^ might be an over-simplified analogy, but the point I am really getting at, is this notion of ‘perceived value’.
Maybe ‘perceived value’ really WAS worth something, when Companies had real, ‘hard’, DURABLE GOODS to manufacture and sell.
Today, much of the trading on Wal-Street has to do with complex ‘financial instruments’ and ‘securities’, such as ‘Derivatives’, instead of dealing with durable, hard goods.
This over-reliance on complex ‘financial instruments’ and Crap like that, has unbalanced the entire system.
LikeLike
Why doesn’t the stock market reflect the imminent global depression?
Easy, because it’s election year. Much like how gas prices go down durring elections only to go back up, economic figures are no different. The truth is that one doesn’t need to look at the falsified numbers to determine if an economic collapse is impending, one only needs to look at the laws like NDAA and such to see the government is preparing for mass social unrest. The numbers like unemployment are constantly falsified to give a more optimistic enconimic outlook so that the American people don’t see the writing on the wall and damand political upheaval cutting politicians from the seats that they have become far too comfortable sitting in. The sad truth is that numbers can only be falsified so long before the inevitable takes hold. When the time comes for Americans to economically suffer much like the rest of the world it will come like a thief in the night because the truth of the dire straights before us were hidden from our eyes. This manipulation of data blinds us from the luxury of advanced notice.
LikeLike
I’ve been asking myself the same question, what is propping up the stock market. I kept reading the article, but it didn’t answer the question? Must be rhetorical? I think the Feds are manipulating the markets and actually buying stocks to prop it up.
LikeLike
It’s quite simple. Alan Greenspan, one of the men repsonsible for the U.S. housing bubble, called it “irrational exhuberence.” 2 Thess. 2:11 talks about people who rather believe a lie than hear the cold hard truth.
LikeLike
Boy you hit the nail right on the head!
LikeLike
Remember dot.com bust?
Remember the movie “Margin Call”?
Remember the “packaging” of trillions of dollars of worth of worthless mortgages that were sold to investors around the globe as the best thing since sliced bread?
Etc…..wall street don’t care as long as they make billions on investors?
Remember when wall street and the bankers were bailed out?
LikeLike
It is also a possibility that it is the intention to keep most Americans in the dark and then one morning wake up and find that they’ve lost everything and there is a new currency. That happened in North Korea about 2-3 years ago.
Also, many Americans really do not follow their stocks or mutual funds as they should. They have put it in the hands of an advisor who will sink you if you do not watch that person.
I learned early on……I’ve been bit….
Furthermore, some mutual fund advisors are probably telling their clients that :It’s ok, the market will come back, it does this, you have to go through good times and bad times:. Which is true, but some Americans have their retirements locked up in it and have lost so much that
there is an hope it will spring back and they will recover their loses.
And God bless these people, they just want to be able to live after retirement and enjoy their golden years.
One question remains. If Americans suddenly withdrew their monies from the Stock Market, what do you think would happen?
That’s just my opinion…..
LikeLike
Well said, a lot of us have been “bit”. Speaking of retirement, remember the big push(politicians including the president,financial advisors,bankers,etc) to “allow” people to invest/privatize their social security funds pre 2008? Dosen’t seem to be so important anymore, hmm………….
LikeLike
I sure do and if all possible, I wouldn’t advise anyone to go there, but you know how some people are.
LikeLike
We aren’t in Kansas any more , keep yourself close to God and love ones
LikeLike
1. there is a plunge protection team in place. They buy things up to slow down massive sell-offs. I think this was started during the reagan years?
2. quantitative easing by the fed inflates and frees up money for mega-banks and crony corporations to buy up more of the market.
3. (this is a personal opinion) The US Markets are used to launder massive amounts of drug money and other illegal profits.
LikeLike
Alvin thank you so much for your continued watch and diligence in covering these world changing events..it would take me forever to sort through the mass/mess of info. to come to a point of clarity with it all. Your daily posts are invaluable to me because you report the facts clearly, concisely and with integrity…you are appreciated more than you know….
LikeLike
Thanks CM
LikeLike
The market is supported by the bonds of each countries slaves. Each of us has a market value. With so many choosing to suck on the teet of their governments, and small business unwilling to take risks by hiring said bums, they are loosing tax revenue. The market is a joke… and any that are supporting it by gambeling their earning in it deserve what is coming. Besides its those gamblers that care more about money then those suffering and struggling to put food on the table.
LikeLike
The stock market is a giant casino …Only this time , there will more losers…
LikeLike
Maybe because the stock market will cease to exist.
LikeLike
Well, I’m not a gambler so I don’t “invest” in stocks, even though I’m still trying to learn how it works. To say the stock market is an illusion is an understatement, like casinos who advertise the big winners but don’t tell you about the millions who’ve lost fortunes. Now is the time to be prepared. I figure that I’ve been living on a prayer for many years so I’m ready. God be with us all.
Maranatha
LikeLike
Someone in an earlier post mentioned currency changing in North Korea. That reminded me of the early 70’s while assigned to S. Korea, where the US change the GI currency (MPC) every month to a different color. This way no one could get rich. You could exchange your pink money for the blue, and blue for the yellow each month and so on but, you could only exchange a small amount. So let’s say you had a thousand and the exchange limit was five-hundred, the rest would be trash.
They did provide an exception to the rule if you could that prove that you earned any overages lawfully as in saving your money month to month, or having a large sum wired to you etc. And, this also destroyed the local’s who sold thing underhandedly because they could only trade with the GI’s who won’t trade because of the imposed limits. Must of us were broke by months end (especially me), but a few of the movers and shakers would have a lot more. I hope something like that isn’t coming down the pike.
LikeLike
“imminent global depression”? “time to panic”? Those terms are used very loosely & far from the truth. The europe markets are already showing signs of recovery now that Greece went the right way. The global markets are not sunshine & bunnies, but nor is it time to panic, etc…
LikeLike
it’s the ostrich syndrome…
and Alvin, thanx for all the work you’re doing, and this site, and sorry for the way too long comment yesterday. I got carried away.
peace
LikeLike
No worries, friend.
Thanks and all the best,
Alvin
LikeLike
Simple: As fiat currency is devalued, stock prices will generally increase—until they crash.
LikeLike
Ive never had much use for the stock market because it produces nothing. Its not investing its gambling. Folks need to try to position themselves so their well being is not dependent or affected by other people things or conditions.
LikeLike
Of the 24 previous comments, not one expresses even an inkling knowledge of the stock markets or basic economics. The stock market predicts the future economy. Thus, in 2008 the market took a 50% nose-dive while real unemployement was still in the 5% range. That 50% drop was predicting the conditions that our economy has been in since that time. Currently the stock market is holding at near pre-2008 levels because the market is betting that Obama and his communist gang are going to be thrown out of office. Furthermore, the market is predicting that Obamacare will be tossed out by the supremes in a few days.
LikeLike
Alvin: You are our “Watchman on the Wall.” I look to you for the truth about current events. Many blessings!
LikeLike
God bless and we thanks Him for the opportunties extended here.
LikeLike
People really need to grasp something important here. It’s not a financial crisis or a stcok market crisis or any other crisis baloney. That simply belies what is really going on. We have global economies based on infinite growth, Billlions and billions of people, GM foods just so we can eat, finite oil, finite gas, finite virtually everything. The financial “crisis” is merely reality catching up with the debt growth bubble. It’s about to go into the overtaking lane and when it does, watch out. In a nutshell 6 Billion people are going to cease to exist and there is nothing that will stop it. It happens in nature all the time. Unfortunately we are no different to the lemmings.
LikeLike