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Incoming CME from the Sun to glance Earth on May 14th
This entry was posted in Earth Changes, Earth Watch, Geomagnetic Storm Alert, Solar Event, Space Watch. Bookmark the permalink.
What was the magnitude of the CME? It doesn’t say on Spaceweather.com either…
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Does anyone know exactly what a “glancing blow” means?
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Jessica, a glancing blow means an “indirect hit”, which is preferable to a “direct hit”. It comes at us from the side. Used alot in boxing terms.
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Here’s an animation of the predicted path of the CME… http://spaceweather.com/images2012/12may12/20120512_022400_anim.tim-den.gif?PHPSESSID=7llu10fu3d2bs2g8ml3qab98k1
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What exactly does that mean? What will be the results of this?
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Depending how the flare is charged, positive or negative, has an effect on the planets magnetosphere. Also, think of the planet as a microwave oven, and the incoming CME as someone switching it on for a few days. It adversely affects the movement of the plates, what we think is solid land mass(the Earth’s crust) is floating on the under layer (the mantle) and also rising internal core temperatures as a pressure cooker, released through volcanoes.
It’s a build up effect, no single flare will cause catastrophe.
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Update from Yamkin
Huge Sunspot AR1476 Poses A Threat For Strong Solar Flares On 14th May 2012
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New
iNTEGRATED SPACE WEATHER ANALYSIS SYSTEM
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html
SWA is a flexible, turn-key, Web-based dissemination system for NASA-relevant space weather information that combines forecasts based on the most advanced space weather models with concurrent space environment information. iSWA is customer-configurable and adaptable for use as a powerful decision-making tool. The system offers an unprecedented ability to analyze the present and expected future space weather impacts on NASA’s human and robotic missions.
Solar
Heliosphere
Magnetosphere
Ionosphere
Planetary
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THIS IS FROM YAMKIN’S ALERT SYSTEM
*******EXTREME UPDATE******* ****VERY URGENT MAGNETOSPHERE ALERT***** PRESSURE HAS EXTREMELY INCREASED ON MAGNETOSPHERE. FURTHER EARTHQUAKES, VOLCANO ACTIVITY AND OTHER DISASTERS WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE COSMIC RAYS STRIKING THE EARTH’S CORE.
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Yamkin, Please, what is your warning? I don’t understand. What information are we missing?
245 MHz bursts, geomagnetic K index of 4, are not unusual. Copies of today’s (May 16 9:20 P.M. E.S. USA time zone) reports and one gm K 4 warning follow my post. The reports and warnings are prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. and are available to the public.
https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov/ This is a link to subscribe for various solar weather products. There are also tutorials , to explain , in lay terms, what (well, some of) it all means.
https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov/
________________________________________________________________
Radio Events Observed 16 May 2012
A. 245 MHz Bursts
Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration
1823 1823 110 1823 0000
2313 2314 100 2314 0001
B. 245 MHz Noise Storms
Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak
1152 1218 160 1158
________________________________________________________________
Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
Serial Number: 1578
Issue Time: 2012 May 16 2314 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2012 May 16 2313 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents – Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora – Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
__________________________________________________________________
Message flagged Wednesday, May 16, 2012 6:02 PM
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 May 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1476 (N13W73) produced a
few C-class flares while continuing to decay. Regions 1482 (N13E10)
and 1484 (N09E38) also produced a few low level C-class events. A
pair of CMEs associated with apparent filament eruptions were
observed in LASCO C2/C3, but neither appear to be earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next 3 days (17-19 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: With the exception of an
isolated unsettled or active period early on day 1 (17 May) from an
expected solar sector boundary crossing, geomagnetic field
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet throughout the period
(17-19 May).
III. Event Probabilities 17 May-19 May
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 May 131
Predicted 17 May-19 May 130/130/130
90 Day Mean 16 May 115
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 004/005-004/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
________________________________________________________________
:Product: Solar Region Summary
:Issued: 2012 May 17 0030 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
SRS Number 138 Issued at 0030Z on 17 May 2012
Report compiled from data received at SWO on 16 May
I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 16/2400Z
Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
1476 N13W73 183 0230 Cao 15 03 Beta
1477 S21W32 143 0010 Axx 02 01 Alpha
1478 S22W23 134 0060 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
1479 N10E01 110 0050 Cso 03 03 Beta
1481 S10E19 091 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
1482 N13E10 101 0130 Cao 06 09 Beta
1483 S26E13 099 0010 Axx 00 01 Alpha
1484 N09E38 072 0120 Dao 08 09 Beta
1485 S20E51 060 0010 Bxo 04 04 Beta
IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 16/2400Z May
Nmbr Location Lo
None
II. Regions Due to Return 17 May to 19 May
Nmbr Lat Lo
1473 S21 005
1469 S25 344
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I didn’t get to see any Aurora. Rain, rain. Much needed, and appreciated, rain.
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THIS ALL RIGHT NOW, but of mostly short duration May 17 12:28 A.M. EST USA
WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 May 17 0255 UTC
Valid To: 2012 May 17 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 – Minor
_________________________________
SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2012 May 17 0125 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 May 17 0147 UTC
End Time: 2012 May 17 0214 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.1
Location: N13W73
NOAA Scale: R2 – Moderate
____________________________________
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
Serial Number: 794
Issue Time: 2012 May 17 0327 UTC
ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 May 17 0131 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 645 km/s
______________________________________
Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
Serial Number: 370
Issue Time: 2012 May 17 0327 UTC
ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2012 May 17 0132 UTC
________________________________________
SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2012 May 17 0129 UTC
Maximum Time: 2012 May 17 0142 UTC
End Time: 2012 May 17 0151 UTC
Duration: 22 minutes
Peak Flux: 600 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 131 sfu
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The CME I forecast to strike the magnetosphere on the 28th May 2012 was on time, but the consequences speaks volumes, hence Italy for example.
The next CME strike is on the 30th May 2012. The cosmic rays will greatly influence the earth’s core resulting in more earthquakes, volcano activity.
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