Large rotating sunpot unleashes X-class flare

March 5, 2012SPACE Earth orbiting satellites have just detected an X1-class solar flare from sunspot AR1429. The flare peaked at 0413 UTC on March 5th. The sunspot has a ‘beta-gamma’ magnetic field that harbors energy for strong M-class solar flares. Indeed, it has already unleashed an M3-class eruption on March 2nd, which created mild waves of ionization in the atmosphere over Europe. The explosion also hurled a bright CME into space. According to analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab, the CME will probably miss Earth, although it will hit Mercury and Venus. Earth-effects could become stronger as the sunspot turns toward our planet in the days ahead. NOAA forecasters estimate a 55% chance of additional M-class flares and a 5% chance of an X-flare during the next 24 hours. –Space Weather
 
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20 Responses to Large rotating sunpot unleashes X-class flare

  1. I am confused,it seems like our sun is pretty active to me,yet on other forums people claim the sun is in a less active than normal phase,so are they just crazy blind or what?

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  2. Luisport says:

    this CME arrival time/date is for the CME that was associated with the M2.0 LDE flare that occured on March 4th
    http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/m20-lde-flare-from-sunspot-1429.html

    we now have 2 CMEs we are expecting
    the one from March 4th – due on March 6th
    the one from March 5th – due late on March 6th into early March 7th

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  3. Luisport says:

    the X-rays have been very active today
    producing a C2.3, C5.8, C1.2, C5.4, C7.8
    with the background Xray flux not dropping below the C1 range since we had the X flare

    NOAA has this to say-
    Big sunspot 1429 poses a threat for X-class solar flares
    with today:
    a 60% chance for M flares
    a 15% chance for X flares
    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

    based on +/- componants within the sunspots
    1429 chance for flares right now
    54% chance for M
    50% chance for X
    http://spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk/monitor.html

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  4. Luisport says:

    From SIDC daily bulletin-

    SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)
    PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 007
    PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 004
    PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 029
    COMMENT: Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR 1429) situated around N20E60
    produced an X1.1 flare this morning, peaking at 04:09 UT. It was
    accompanied by coronal dimmings and a post-eruption arcade indicating
    the eruption of a CME. The corresponding full halo CME first appeared in
    the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 04:00 UT, propagating at a projected
    plane of the sky speed of around 1300 km/s. We expect the CME-associated
    interplanetary disturbance (most probably only a CME-driven shock due to
    the source region position close to the limb) to arrive at the Earth on
    March 7-8, possibly triggering a minor to moderate geomagnetic storm.
    The eruption was associated with a strong radio flux in the metric
    range. SEP flux at energies above 10 MeV is elevated as a result of the
    halo CME and the CME associated with yesterday’s M2.0 flare. The proton
    flux will most probably cross the SEP event threshold in the coming
    hours. Protons from both CMEs are delayed due to the eastern position of
    the CME source region. Due to the beta-gamma-delta configuration of the
    photospheric magnetic field of the Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR
    1429) and its movement towards the solar central meridian, we expect
    another major flare from this group, probably with an associated
    Earth-directed CME and a proton event.

    http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/

    NOAA S1 proton event WARNING

    Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
    Serial Number: 342
    Issue Time: 2012 Mar 05 1517 UTC

    WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
    Valid From: 2012 Mar 05 2100 UTC
    Valid To: 2012 Mar 06 2100 UTC
    Warning Condition: Onset
    Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 – Minor
    Potential Impacts: Radio – Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

    : http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html

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  5. MalachiYAH says:

    It seems to me that when we get a solar flare of any sizable portion the opposite of the earth where it strikes has an earthquake. Is my observation correct or is it just me?

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    • Yamkin says:

      MalachiYAH, You are correct about an earthquake striking. Also, the solar storms effect the weather cycles.

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    • Tcrale says:

      Theres more of a connection then People realize. Charles fort in his book of the damned talked about this – I don’t recall anything about solar flares but say when there was some kind of distrbance in the galaxy that it was very common that some kind of disaster (ie earthquake) would happen on earth. So to answer your question that I feel if it happens in the galaxy around us I could very well see a connection with our own star which is a whole lot closer. We’re all connected; people forget about that too!

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    • Tim says:

      Luisport, than you for sharing!

      So there is an M-class Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), and right behind it a X-class CME headed for Earth, due to arrive this March 7th/8th? In addition, a 63% chance the sun will have another X-class CME.

      What areas of the Earth are this weeks CMEs due to hit?

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  6. Luisport says:

    we have coronal hole winds expected today
    i have also added the expected CH winds to the list we have on the solar alerts blog
    found on the right hand side

    Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
    Serial Number: 342
    Issue Time: 2012 Mar 05 1517 UTC

    WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
    Valid From: 2012 Mar 05 2100 UTC
    Valid To: 2012 Mar 06 2100 UTC
    Warning Condition: Onset
    Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 – Minor
    Potential Impacts: Radio – Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

    ————————————————————

    Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
    Serial Number: 1866
    Issue Time: 2012 Mar 05 1307 UTC

    CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
    Continuation of Serial Number: 1865
    Begin Time: 2012 Mar 02 1425 UTC
    Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1242 pfu
    Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

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  7. Irene C says:

    Wow, now that’s a lot of activity.

    Maranatha

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  8. Yamkin says:

    Magnetic StormRadiation Storm Watch 6th March 2012

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  9. Luisport says:

    Latest SIDC bulletin:

    We expect another major flare
    from Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR 1429), which will be probably
    accompanied by an Earth-directed CME and a proton event (due to the
    group approaching the solar central meridian). The SEP flux at energies
    above 10 MeV is elevated but still below the event threshold. We
    nevertheless expect that the proton flux will eventually cross the SEP
    event threshold. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 375 km/s)
    solar wind flow with elevated (around 10 nT) interplanetary magnetic
    field magnitude. Due to low solar wind speed, we expect quiet
    geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours. On March 7-8 we expect the
    arrival of an interplanetary disturbance (most probably only a
    CME-driven shock) associated with the full halo CME on March 5. We
    expect minor to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions.
    http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/

    A diffuse CME detected from one of the overnight M-flares:

    Will look for more info on this later as well as possible CME from the recent M2.1 flare.

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  10. Luisport says:

    EARTH-DIRECTED CME ALERT: Another one coming…

    Luckily, it not a biggie, but the latest cygnet shows a bulls-eye on Earth early on March 9 from the modest overnight CME.

    http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23%2000:44:00&window=-1&cygnetId=261

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  11. Nick Davies says:

    There is a programme called Horizon on BBC2 in the UK which is on the TV now. Its all about the likelihood of severe solar activity in the next twelve months causing storms that could wipe out our hi-tech systems and send us back to the ‘Dark Ages’.

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  12. Alstradomus says:

    Additional note to my first post. On February 25 2010 a large magnetic filament erupted causing a geomagnetic storm just before the Chilean quake , also the near full moon was at Mars. March 8 2012 the full moon is at Mars as the current sunspot is threatening. Remember both megaquakes occurred 22 before Saturn opposition. This year same events set for March 22 2012 plus a new moon.

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  13. Alstradomus says:

    just released an X-5

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  14. Kaos says:

    X5.4 class flare followed by X1.3 – Earth Directed.
    CME & Geomagnetic Storm Warning issued 07.03.2012 – 14:30ut….

    http://solarham.com/

    Incoming
    Incoming! The new WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction is calling for an almost direct CME impact during the middle of tomorrow (March 8). The solar wind is expected to increase to over 800 km/s and Strong Geomagnetic Storming will be possible. This plasma cloud is the result of the X5.4 and X1.3 Solar Flare event very early this morning. in the new movie below, you can see that the plasma cloud is Full_Halo and heading this way.

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