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Large rotating sunpot unleashes X-class flare
This entry was posted in Earth Changes, Earth Watch, Solar Event, Space Watch. Bookmark the permalink.
I am confused,it seems like our sun is pretty active to me,yet on other forums people claim the sun is in a less active than normal phase,so are they just crazy blind or what?
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I just want an answer about if the sun is more active than what they claim,and how bad is it?
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this CME arrival time/date is for the CME that was associated with the M2.0 LDE flare that occured on March 4th
http://mysolaralerts.blogspot.com/2012/03/m20-lde-flare-from-sunspot-1429.html
we now have 2 CMEs we are expecting
the one from March 4th – due on March 6th
the one from March 5th – due late on March 6th into early March 7th
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the X-rays have been very active today
producing a C2.3, C5.8, C1.2, C5.4, C7.8
with the background Xray flux not dropping below the C1 range since we had the X flare
NOAA has this to say-
Big sunspot 1429 poses a threat for X-class solar flares
with today:
a 60% chance for M flares
a 15% chance for X flares
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html
based on +/- componants within the sunspots
1429 chance for flares right now
54% chance for M
50% chance for X
http://spaceweather.inf.brad.ac.uk/monitor.html
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From SIDC daily bulletin-
SOLAR PROTONS : Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)
PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 125 / AP: 007
PREDICTIONS FOR 06 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 004
PREDICTIONS FOR 07 Mar 2012 10CM FLUX: 135 / AP: 029
COMMENT: Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR 1429) situated around N20E60
produced an X1.1 flare this morning, peaking at 04:09 UT. It was
accompanied by coronal dimmings and a post-eruption arcade indicating
the eruption of a CME. The corresponding full halo CME first appeared in
the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 04:00 UT, propagating at a projected
plane of the sky speed of around 1300 km/s. We expect the CME-associated
interplanetary disturbance (most probably only a CME-driven shock due to
the source region position close to the limb) to arrive at the Earth on
March 7-8, possibly triggering a minor to moderate geomagnetic storm.
The eruption was associated with a strong radio flux in the metric
range. SEP flux at energies above 10 MeV is elevated as a result of the
halo CME and the CME associated with yesterday’s M2.0 flare. The proton
flux will most probably cross the SEP event threshold in the coming
hours. Protons from both CMEs are delayed due to the eastern position of
the CME source region. Due to the beta-gamma-delta configuration of the
photospheric magnetic field of the Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR
1429) and its movement towards the solar central meridian, we expect
another major flare from this group, probably with an associated
Earth-directed CME and a proton event.
http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/
NOAA S1 proton event WARNING
Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 342
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 05 1517 UTC
WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 05 2100 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 06 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 – Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio – Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.
: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline.html
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It seems to me that when we get a solar flare of any sizable portion the opposite of the earth where it strikes has an earthquake. Is my observation correct or is it just me?
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MalachiYAH, You are correct about an earthquake striking. Also, the solar storms effect the weather cycles.
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Theres more of a connection then People realize. Charles fort in his book of the damned talked about this – I don’t recall anything about solar flares but say when there was some kind of distrbance in the galaxy that it was very common that some kind of disaster (ie earthquake) would happen on earth. So to answer your question that I feel if it happens in the galaxy around us I could very well see a connection with our own star which is a whole lot closer. We’re all connected; people forget about that too!
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63% chance of another X flare;
http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/index.jsp?i_1=2&l_1=60&t_1=290&w_1=500&h_1=500&s_1=0_0_10_3
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Luisport, than you for sharing!
So there is an M-class Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), and right behind it a X-class CME headed for Earth, due to arrive this March 7th/8th? In addition, a 63% chance the sun will have another X-class CME.
What areas of the Earth are this weeks CMEs due to hit?
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we have coronal hole winds expected today
i have also added the expected CH winds to the list we have on the solar alerts blog
found on the right hand side
Space Weather Message Code: WARPX1
Serial Number: 342
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 05 1517 UTC
WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2012 Mar 05 2100 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Mar 06 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 – Minor
Potential Impacts: Radio – Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.
————————————————————
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 1866
Issue Time: 2012 Mar 05 1307 UTC
CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 1865
Begin Time: 2012 Mar 02 1425 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 1242 pfu
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.
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Wow, now that’s a lot of activity.
Maranatha
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Magnetic StormRadiation Storm Watch 6th March 2012
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Latest SIDC bulletin:
We expect another major flare
from Catania sunspot group 65 (NOAA AR 1429), which will be probably
accompanied by an Earth-directed CME and a proton event (due to the
group approaching the solar central meridian). The SEP flux at energies
above 10 MeV is elevated but still below the event threshold. We
nevertheless expect that the proton flux will eventually cross the SEP
event threshold. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 375 km/s)
solar wind flow with elevated (around 10 nT) interplanetary magnetic
field magnitude. Due to low solar wind speed, we expect quiet
geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours. On March 7-8 we expect the
arrival of an interplanetary disturbance (most probably only a
CME-driven shock) associated with the full halo CME on March 5. We
expect minor to moderate geomagnetic storm conditions.
http://sidc.oma.be/products/meu/
A diffuse CME detected from one of the overnight M-flares:
Will look for more info on this later as well as possible CME from the recent M2.1 flare.
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EARTH-DIRECTED CME ALERT: Another one coming…
Luckily, it not a biggie, but the latest cygnet shows a bulls-eye on Earth early on March 9 from the modest overnight CME.
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23%2000:44:00&window=-1&cygnetId=261
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There is a programme called Horizon on BBC2 in the UK which is on the TV now. Its all about the likelihood of severe solar activity in the next twelve months causing storms that could wipe out our hi-tech systems and send us back to the ‘Dark Ages’.
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Additional note to my first post. On February 25 2010 a large magnetic filament erupted causing a geomagnetic storm just before the Chilean quake , also the near full moon was at Mars. March 8 2012 the full moon is at Mars as the current sunspot is threatening. Remember both megaquakes occurred 22 before Saturn opposition. This year same events set for March 22 2012 plus a new moon.
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just released an X-5
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X5.4 class flare followed by X1.3 – Earth Directed.
CME & Geomagnetic Storm Warning issued 07.03.2012 – 14:30ut….
http://solarham.com/
Incoming
Incoming! The new WSA-Enlil Solar Wind Prediction is calling for an almost direct CME impact during the middle of tomorrow (March 8). The solar wind is expected to increase to over 800 km/s and Strong Geomagnetic Storming will be possible. This plasma cloud is the result of the X5.4 and X1.3 Solar Flare event very early this morning. in the new movie below, you can see that the plasma cloud is Full_Halo and heading this way.
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