Damages from tropical cyclones expected to double by 2100

February 1, 2012MIAMIThat figure represents an increased vulnerability from population and especially economic growth, as well as the effects of climate change. Greater vulnerability to cyclones is expected to increase global tropical damage to $56 billion by 2100—double the current damage—from the current rate of $26 billion per year if the present climate remains stable. Climate change is predicted to add another $53 billion of damages. The damage caused by climate change is equal to 0.01 percent of GDP in 2100. The United States and China will be hardest hit, incurring $25 billion and $15 billion of the additional damages from climate change, respectively, amounting to 75 percent of the global damages caused by climate change. Small islands, especially in the Caribbean, will also be hit hard, suffering the highest damages per unit of GDP. The research reveals that more intense storms will become more frequent with climate change. “The biggest storms cause most of the damage,” said Robert Mendelsohn, the lead economist on the project. “With the present climate, almost 93 percent of tropical cyclone damage is caused by only 10 percent of the storms. Warming will increase the frequency of these high-intensity storms at least in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean basins, causing most of the increase in damage. The authors based their estimates on a future global population of 9 billion and an annual increase of approximately 3 percent in gross world product until 2100. “More people making a lot more income will put more capital in harm’s way,” he said.Physics
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10 Responses to Damages from tropical cyclones expected to double by 2100

  1. Sergio says:

    Oh yes. These idiots cannot predict the weather for 2 days ahead and are predicting 100 years ahead. Yes, great.

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  2. Irene C says:

    Not to sound flippant, but I’m not sure that many of us will still be here by 2100. If there is a remnant that survives, I doubt they would have that kind of capital, seeing that they would be pretty much starting over after all the earth changes calm down (if they do).

    Other than that, I agree pretty much with the article if things stay “normal”.

    Maranatha

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  3. Paulie says:

    The IPCC’s definition of Climate Change is “any change in climate”, or no definitionat all.

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  4. Brandon says:

    Alvin,
    2100??? Somehow with all the escalating earth changes and now the possibility that the strange sounds are caused by the earth’s core heating up and slipping, and the strange animal movements that we won’t be here in 2100, Alvin. Things are just happening too fast.

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  5. Eamon says:

    As if they have any idea what things will really be like by 2100. The Infinite Growth Paradigm is absolute toast and something sane will have replaced it, by necessity, well before 2100.

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    • Many elements of the ecology are non-renewable and IGP models are unsustainable in the present ecology. We’re either going to run out of food, kill each other in conflict, or pestilence will reduce the number of people inhabitating the planet. It’s anybody’s guess which one will hit us first, if not all three. It’s part of the Malthusian catastrophe.

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    • nickk0 says:

      Eamon, I have to agree with your assessment of the ‘Infinite Growth’ paradigm.

      I don’t think that today’s corporations and financial entities would like face up to that, however.

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  6. Garth Colin Whelan says:

    I would hope by 2100, we would already be well into the millenial reign of Christ…

    Like

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