Probability of powerful quake rises for NZ city

November 4, 2011CHRISTCHURCH, NZScientists warned on Friday of an increased probability that another powerful earthquake will hit the earthquake-stricken New Zealand city of Christchurch in the next year. Christchurch, New Zealand’s second largest city, is already facing a repair bill worth NZ$20 billion ($15.8 billion) after a 6.3-magnitude quake struck in February, killing 181 people and destroying much of the downtown area. In a new report, government scientists said there was a 15 percent probability of a magnitude 6.0 to 6.4 quake in the next 12 months, up from 10 percent in September. The chance of a 5.5-5.9 magnitude quake was put at 46 percent from 37 percent two months ago. The announcement of increased probabilities comes only a month after the government’s earthquake monitoring unit GNS Science said they were decreasing. “Nothing has changed inside the earth to increase the risk of an earthquake, it’s just that there is a change in the way the probabilities are calculated,” said Kelvin Berryman, the natural hazards research manager. He said the forecasting technique was changed to reflect a longer-term outlook now that the aftershock sequence is 13 months on from the initial 7.0 quake that rocked the city and weakened its infrastructure. “The aftershocks are behaving as expected. They are declining in frequency quite quickly. “But now the possibility of triggered earthquakes at greater distances is becoming a prominent component of the total hazard, so that is being reflected in the more complex forecast model,” Berryman said. The February 22 quake, which struck at lunchtime when streets were packed, was the deadliest earthquake in New Zealand since a 7.8 magnitude quake in Hawke’s Bay claimed 256 lives in 1931. New Zealand sits on the so-called “Ring of Fire”, the boundary of the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates, and experiences up to 15,000 tremors a year. –Khaleejtimes
This entry was posted in Civilizations unraveling, Earth Changes, Earth Watch, Earthquake Omens?, High-risk potential hazard zone, Potential Earthchange hotspot, Seismic tremors. Bookmark the permalink.

8 Responses to Probability of powerful quake rises for NZ city

  1. It would be wonderful if we could actually forecast a probability for earthquakes like we can forecast the probability of tornadoes. However, fault movements, being as unpredictable as they are, that isn’t possible.

    To my Australian friends, stay alert and stay safe. My prayers are with you.



  2. Donna says:

    That’s all we need down here….more large quakes. Of course you don’t hear about this ‘in’ New Zealand. -_- Thanks for the post.


  3. Ynot says:

    Australia and New Zealand are two completely separate countries and on different plates. The shortest distance between Australia and New Zealand is 1491 km. The distance between Sydney-Australia & Auckland-New Zealand is 1338.23 miles.

    New Zealanders are not Australians.


    • RainMan says:

      Thankyou Irene C for kind blessings.
      You are right Ynot, we are only neighbours, known as ANZAC’s during WW2, we are still at war over the rugby, cricket and league and have yet to have a better racehorse than Phar Lap, but we got the America’s Cup before the Kiwis did. 🙂


    • watching from NZ says:

      o so true, like mistaking Americans and Canadians!

      Have heard that anyone rebuilding in Christchurch can not get insurance cover untill there has been 100 quake free days…. they haven’t had a quake free week yet alone 100 days


    • My apologies Ynot. Please forgive me. This is embarrassing because I do realize that. I have no idea where my mind was when I wrote this. Well. my prayers are may be with my Australian friends but my prayers are also with my New Zealand friends. I guess I had better drink more coffee before I comment. 🙂

      Thank you for the swift kick in the backside.



  4. Marie says:

    Poor Kiwis. I love New Zealand so much and especially the people. My prayers go out to them.


  5. El's Friend says:

    Yes, I too thank you Irene C for your prayers. Australia and NZ are indeed neighbours and, as RainMan so eloquently put it, still at war over sports. Thankfully we (NZ) beat the Aussies in the world cup (rugby)!:O)


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