Earthquake prediction still eludes scientists – so don’t depend on them to warn of earthchanges

September 5, 2011SAN FRANCISCO – Despite decades of research, earthquake prediction remains elusive. As much as society would like scientists to tell us when a jolt is coming, mainstream seismologists are generally pessimistic about ever having that ability. They lived through the checkered history of earthquake prediction, filled with passionate debates, failed oracles and the enduring search for warning signs that may portend a powerful quake. The Earth so far has refused to give up its secrets. In recent years, however, a more hopeful camp has emerged, pushed by researchers using satellites who say it may be possible to someday predict earthquakes from space and others who think they can tease out signals in rocks. The two schools of thought swapped notes during a two-day meeting in Los Angeles weeks before a relatively mild magnitude-5.8 rattled the Eastern Seaboard. “I was pretty skeptical going in and I remain skeptical,” said Washington state seismologist John Vidale, who was among 44 scientists from around the world who attended the invitation-only meeting. Geophysicist Malcolm Johnston with the U.S. Geological Survey agreed. “I’ve been chasing this for a long time,” he said. “If you think you can detect the start of an earthquake, it’s going to be very, very difficult.” How earthquakes occur is well known. The Earth’s crust is like a giant jigsaw puzzle, broken into several pieces known as tectonic plates that constantly bump and grind or slide past each other. The movement happens slowly, about the speed at which our fingernails grow. Eventually, there’s enough pent-up stress and the rocks suddenly slip, releasing tremendous energy that we feel as shaking. Most earthquakes are small and imperceptible. Occasionally, a powerful one wreaks havoc like the ones that ravaged Haiti last year and coastal Japan in March. No one knows how a small rumble can cascade into a big one. –Physics.org
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18 Responses to Earthquake prediction still eludes scientists – so don’t depend on them to warn of earthchanges

  1. Raven says:

    Perhaps this may be of interest to someone Alvin…a person who successfully warned of the Japan Earthquake ( along with many others) openly said this is how he does it:
    An ELF Monitoring station with dipoles inserted into the ground and a T Antenna array system. Listening in on ELF and ULF. Receiving Antenna: Aerial Loop 120 turns, 80 cm diameter with low noise preamplifier.
    Coupled together with Spectrum Labs Software.Both set up with Low filter Amplifier.
    This provides an ideal condition to listen to VLF signals, and to make high quality radio seismic monitoring.
    Be aware that once the signal comes in on ELF it can take from 1 hour and 40 minutes to 2 hours and 30 minutes for the quake to be seen on USGS sites. These signals come in on ELF about 1 1/2 to 2 hours before they actually impact what ever region their epicenters are. Then it takes USGS sites about 30 minutes to display.
    The signals I pay attention to are in the 1 Hz to 10 Hz frequencies. Those are almost always Seismic.
    He listens for intense thumps and disruptions in the frequencies.

    Share this if you deem appropriate Alvin…
    Blessings
    Raven

    Like

    • @Raven – is there a web site that has this information, along with some diagrams? I will be the first to admit that I’m pretty ignorant when it comes to a lot of this stuff, but what I do understand I find fascinating. I’m assuming that the warning went unheeded? Thank you for sharing this information.

      Be blessed and Maranatha

      Like

  2. Raven says:

    Magnitude 6.6 – NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
    2011 September 05 17:55:13 UTC

    Like

  3. david says:

    6.6 close to lake Toba,lets hope this super Sleeping monster isn`t going to be waking up anytime soon,http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/

    Like

  4. Texas Listening Post says:

    Raven,
    Do you have the website for this information? If the person that is using this equipment is willing to share the details, I could setup a detection station in the Panhandle of Texas and coordinate what is received at my station with his.

    Alvin, is there any validity in this ELF & ULF waves?

    Like

  5. Raven says:

    Most welcome Irene..he shares his information daily on a forum..(click through the pages and you can see his success) this is the first page but you can click through to the last for current: http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1494588/pg1
    I’m just finding the link for Japan and will post here for you..
    Blessings

    Like

  6. Michele Hufnagel says:

    http://www.nextearthquake.com/earthquakes_long_term_forecasts.htm#earthquakes_top

    This is a useful website for earthquake predictions. Blessings, Michele Hufnagel

    Like

  7. luisport says:

    Chris says:
    September 5, 2011 at 20:16
    The quake energy is rising pretty quick: http://hraun.vedur.is/ja/myr/myr_str.html#img
    A few days ago the graph for Katla was around 5×10^8.

    Like

  8. Magnitude 5.0 – SOUTH SANDWICH ISLANDS REGION
    2011 September 05 20:32:41 UTC after a 6.2 and a 5.0 on September 03.

    Luke 21:26
    Men’s hearts failing them for fear, and for looking after those things which are coming on the earth: for the powers of heaven shall be shaken.

    Be blessed and Maranatha

    Like

  9. Sarah Athy says:

    Earthquake swarms in South Australia. 16 Very shallow quakes between 4th and 5th September ranging from 1.8 – 3.8mag. Have been watching aust geoscience for some time and not seen a swarm like this in au before.

    Like

  10. Dinah Foster (Brooklyn, N.Y.) says:

    When the earthquake and Tsunami hit Indonesia some years ago, it was reported that no animals were victims of the Tsunami, they ran to higher ground! Apparently, animals can
    sense the vibrations of the earthquake, or the danger that is coming, and they run!
    Perhaps we could use animals in addition to all the scientific research, to help warn us if
    danger is near. Dinah

    Like

  11. Sarah Athy says:

    Earthquake swarms in South Australia. 16 Very shallow quakes
    between 4th and 5th September ranging from 1.8 – 3.8mag. Have
    been watching aust geoscience for some time and not seen a
    swarm like this in au before.

    Like

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