Forecaster predicts brutal UK winter weather for 2011-2012

September 4, 2011DUBLIN – Matt Talbot Bridge in Dublin, December 2010. Image Anthony McEvoyA UK-based long range weather forecaster has issued a severe winter weather warning for 2011-2012. The advisory has been issued following one of the coldest winters experienced in Ireland and Britain more than 45 years. James Madden from weather organization Exacta Weather correctly predicted the harsh conditions experienced over the last two years, and is once again forecasting record-breaking snowfall and freezing temperatures during November, December and January. One of Madden’s primary methods of analyzing long range weather conditions is his analysis of solar cycles. Last week Irish Weather Online carried a story from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) stating that a missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles are signs that our Sun is heading for a rest period even as it is acting up for the first time in years. Dr. Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO’s Solar Synoptic Network, said of the results: “this could be the last solar maximum we’ll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth’s climate. National newspapers, including the Irish Independent and Irish Times, subsequently carried stories warning that a decrease in solar activity will bring Arctic Winters to Ireland and Britain over the coming decades. Commenting on the solar cycle, James Madden said: “Periods of low solar activity at present and what we have seen in recent years influence the Earth’s atmosphere by allowing the stratosphere to cool. This has a somewhat more profound effect over Northern Europe and the UK in terms of colder and snowier winters, due to jet stream patterns that block warm air from reaching us and create more moisture.”
Although sunspot activity has increased somewhat this year and there has been an increase in solar flare activity, the activity is minuscule in comparison to what it should be like during a solar maximum and in terms of frequency. Periods of low solar activity such as this have future repercussions of low solar activity in future cycles and produce extra cloud cover that reflects sunlight with a cooling influence on Earth. The lack of major sunspots and solar flares clearly indicate a slower conveyor belt within the sun. We are now in a very weak solar maximum and my observations indicate that the next solar cycle will also be weak”, he added. Mr. Madden also said that the dust and ash particles released by the recent volcanic eruption in Iceland and Chile would also contribute to cooling down of global temperatures. He said he expected  the 2011-2012 winter to follow a similar pattern in terms of how November and December was in 2010 for the vast majority of the coming winter. “It will be exceptionally cold and snowy with well below average temperatures. I fully expect to see records broken with the highlands of Scotland being once again particularly hard hit. It is therefore vital to start preparing now in terms of high energy bills and raising awareness amongst the most vulnerable and elderly people of society”, Mr. Madden concluded. -IWO
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32 Responses to Forecaster predicts brutal UK winter weather for 2011-2012

  1. JIM CRAIG says:

    KEEP ME INFORMED PLS

  2. frank says:

    If britain gets a brutal winter, then where i live ( denmark ) will get it even tougher due to our position in the scandi, if the winter already starts in november, + we’ve had a cold summer aswell with no real long goes at “summer days” so the oceans around us will prolly get faster cooled down, as it is those who control the danish weather, at the climate meeting in copenhagen a few years back, we had winters from around 14-17th decemeber till arouns end febuary, + close to a new ice winter as we call it. That will happend this year if UK is frozen down for a long period of months or will be a great help to it.

  3. watching says:

    Best to be ready just in case, many preps to sort out. Buy salt…….(plymouth UK) stay safe.

  4. Dennis E. says:

    Now, my friends in the EP family, is the time to prepare for what could be a cold cold winter.

  5. honkytonk says:

    I hope Matt Talbot Bridge offers better predictions than cretinous JONATHAN POWELL of Positive Weather Solutions who never ever seems to get any predictions right.He forecast a long hot week-end earlier this year,a long hot barbecue summer that never happened.He has been wrong no more than 5 times in the past 12 months.Maybe he takes ‘pot luck’ by simply gazing into a crystal ball.In my opinion he is obviously bogus and should be prosecuted for misinformation.Now next is Piers Corbyn who has a remarkable rate of accuracy of 70 per cent.He has been studying sunspots for many years and is well paid and employed regularly for what he has to offer in the field of knowledge of weather forecasting.It seems MR JONATHAN POWELL should find another job and espouse more honest views rather than like Politicians who continuously lie to the public.

    HONKYTONK UK

  6. crispy80 says:

    I found this really interesting. Thank you so much.
    I also really like the prospect of harsher winters. I quite enjoy driving in the snow!

  7. Clive says:

    I know that there are many weather forecasters are predicting a fourth consecutive cold winter but has there hasn’t been any occasion that a fourth consecutive cold winter has occurred. There have been three consecutive cold winters from 1985 to 1987, 1988 was a mild wet one. I do have doubts but I am willing to wait and see.

  8. Gearoid Curley says:

    When is the cold span coming to Ireland ?? !!
    I am hoping that it comes early because we wil get school off !!

  9. darren says:

    No serious snowfall has been forecast for OCTOBER in fact only the highlands of SCOTLAND is there any chance of snow according to any weather forecaster with any sort of proven track record (please take a look at piers corbyn at weatheraction or U.k et office these are the first 2 forecasERS i check also netweather do not show any signs of snow or even signicicant cold temparatures in their forecasts. Even the forecasters who study solar activity such as Madden show no snow forecasts for October in fact this month if anything will be slightly milder than recent averages.

  10. darren says:

    THE only forecaster who is predicting this snow is Madden at exacta weather either he is very wrong and the rest are very wrong lets wait and see is weather forecast lack any real depth so i think hes probly just a guesser who has got luckey a few times untill further proof.

  11. well its here..councils hav orderd 1.4million tons of salt/grit

  12. scrappy coco says:

    i was still wonder exactly ‘how much’ snow there will be in britain, is it going to be as much as the artic, or somewhere like switzerland?

  13. i hope it starts to get very cold here in the uk in november

  14. The hype surrounding this year’s winter forecast has been remarkable,EVEN unparalleled.

    Driven largely by sections of the tabloid press and several small private weather companies, the idea that this winter could be the worst ever recorded has already become firmly planted in many peoples’ minds.

    This is despite recent forecasting failures; the predicted heat-wave this summer by Netweather that never materialised; and the cold and snowy October blast, forecast by Exacta weather, that has turned out to be a total non-event – temporary chilly conditions in the last couple of days are perfectly normal for this time of year.

    But both stories were lapped up by an ever eager media.

    There are several reasons why we have seen a rise in sensationalist weather stories recently.

    Firstly, weather sells newspapers. I remember when I worked for the Met Office they tried to tackle one national newspaper about their ‘over the top’ coverage of weather stories only to be told that weather sells newspapers (a rise in circulation of 10% was quoted by one newspaper editor each and every time there was a front page weather headline).

    Secondly, a vacuum has been created by the Met Office, now they don’t publish their seasonal forecasts anymore. This vacuum has been readily filled by small, private companies keen to get coverage.

    But back to the subject of this winter. With the sun much more active than it was this time last year, there are no guarantees that this winter is going to be cold and snowy despite one forecaster’s claim that this winter could be the ‘coldest ever recorded’ – which is, in my opinion, extremely unlikely.

    Piers Corbyn of Weather Action, who analyses solar activity and how it impacts climate patterns, SAID earlier in the week that this winters’ forecast is not straight forward and ‘a difficult call’. He will publish his winter forecast early next month.

    Close inspection of the forecasts that are available suggests that on the balance of probabilities a colder than average winter is the most likely scenario. This would mean some disruption due to snow, but not as extreme or long lived as last year.

    It’s worth pointing out that this would mean 4 colder than average winters in succession, itself unusual for the UK, and we shouldn’t altogether rule out an average, or even a mild winter.

  15. http://www.weatheraction.com/

    MUCH RESPECTED WEATHER FORECASTER Piers Corbyn has put forward his first winter weather forecast check the link he has forecast extreme cold temparatures for BRITAIN from end of Nov to end of Dec with snow early December and Mid Dec.

    With most forecasers now predicting a generally mildish November if piers forecast prove correct the winter weather could arrive by late November he states 80% certain of this forecast cold weather for late nov through to late Dec

  16. Clive says:

    I think that the forecasters could be wrong about what month will be the coldest month. The weather patterns of this autumn are like those of 1985. The last time we had a record heatwave at the end of September and the beginning of October. The winter of 1985 to 1986 had a record cold February. If you were to base the forecast for this winter on 1985 then it would be February 2012 that would be the coldest and not November or December 2011. I think we needed to look carefully at February this winter.

  17. john titley says:

    I fear James Madden is a bit of a self publicist who seems to like making strong clear statements that catch the eye but are based on half baked theories. His predictions are already starting to unravel, ‘heavy snow and severe cold in October and November. October was exceptionally mild and November looks likley to be mild too. The UK met office has stopped trying to predict the UK winters as it is too difficult. Unfortuately lazy journalists are only too happy to pick these stories up without any scrutiny and reproduce them verbatim because eye catching headlines sell papers.

  18. Firstly the weather for November has been mild we are almost half way through the month and no signs of any signifcant change in the weather are forecast therefore it seems a given November will be a mild month so anyone who forecast cold or snowy weather foir this month has been well short of the mark.

    I feel the weather forecasts of James Madden to be most lacking in detail therefore its difficult to see the facination and attention given over the last month or two.

    I do appreciate that the met office are not qualified to give long term weather forecasts which is why they no longer give out long term forecasts their computer models tend to break down after about 3or 4 days and have made little progress despte the investment into the super computers over the last few years. They now only give out 30 day forcasts at most.

    Therefore I do feel that forecasters who study solar and lunar cycles and have had success in the past are worth a check

  19. ELLEN RUDDY says:

    Not correct so far>>> just getting a bit of frost now and i have bought the snow shoes and the chains for my car>>> ah well they@ll come in useful some day

  20. Ann Mc Keon says:

    In Dublin we had the warmest November on Record, seems like the prediction is a tad wrong, and its December and the weather is still ok, just getting a bit chilly now

  21. gary says:

    still witing for some snow. Its dec. 26th now and quess what… NO SNOW………

  22. Autumn and winter so far temparature data for England and Scotland
    October——-was generally mild with a very warm few days at the end of the month

    November——–generally mildish weather

    December——–coldish first half with temparatures slightly below normal and some major disruption due to snow in scotland some snow on the higher grounds of england

    The second half of december we saw a warming period with a very warm last week well above average temparatures.

    January———-so far upto the 9th mildish temparatures a few deg highewr than average.

    the winter starts in dec so the has been no significant cold period in england or scotland so far.
    I would suggest is most likely to turn out to be a mildish late autumn/ winter

  23. Yvonne Wallace says:

    Is it true more winds are expected in Scotland this week and at the end of the month?

  24. John mac says:

    Kinda got that 1 well wrong. Lol! Does anybody know what they are talking about there’s days!!!

  25. Pat says:

    It looks as if predictions of a severe winter in UK were wrong with high pressure to the south of the UK and a succession of depressions accross the Atlantic via Newfoundland – marked warm sectors with air from the Gulf . No resident Anticyclones over Greenland as in previous two winters and nothing from Siberia pushing our way. In recent days there has been a change with an intense anticyclone over northern scandinavia and Russia extending towards the UK. There is still a track of anticyclones further south from America running to North Africa but the northern anticyclone is much stronger and holding back the depressions bringing milder air to the UK. It will be interesting to see how long this lasts. It is certainly a different tendencyfrom last two years and a previous writer compared the current year with the winter of 1985/86 where February was the coldest month.It will be interesting to see how this progresses into the spring.

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