Hurricane Katia now category 2- latest models show Katia to remain at sea

 
September 3, 2011Miami– Hurricane Katia intensified rapidly to become a Category 2 storm on Sunday as it spun through the Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center said. At 11 a.m. ET, Katia had maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and was moving to the northwest at about 12 mph, the center said. It was 360 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. “Additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Katia could become a major hurricane by Monday,” the center said. Surf swells were primarily affecting the northern Lesser Antilles, but were expected to subside Monday. Swells could hit Bermuda in the coming days, the center said. “These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.” Katia’s likely path puts it on a trajectory northwest through the Atlantic, getting closer to the U.S. East Coast toward the end of the week. –CNN 

The latest models (September 5, 2011) show the storm will not strike the U.S. coasts
This entry was posted in Earth Changes, Earth Watch, Extreme Weather Event, Strange high tides & freak waves, Unprecedented Flooding. Bookmark the permalink.

11 Responses to Hurricane Katia now category 2- latest models show Katia to remain at sea

  1. She just can’t make up her mind. Plus she is expected to become a hurricane again. This is still a “wait and see” storm.

    Like

  2. luisport says:

    BreakingNews Breaking News
    Rapidly strengthening Hurricane Katia upgraded to the Category 2 hurricane over the Atlantic http://1.usa.gov/ptiVAk
    há 1 minuto

    Like

  3. Warren says:

    My biggest concern is that Lee and Katia overlap eachother!

    Like

  4. luisport says:

    000 WTNT42 KNHC 041454 TCDAT2

    HURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2011

    EARLIER THIS MORNING…THE CENTER OF KATIA MOVED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF NOAA BUOY 41044…WHICH MEASURED A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 78 KT…A GUST TO 93 KT…AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 968.3 MB. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO BETWEEN 65 AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB…BUT THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 85 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA…KATIA IS INITIALIZED AS AN 85-KT HURRICANE. AN EYE IS BECOMING APPARENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY…YET THE INFRARED IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW THE DEEP CONVECTION VERY SYMMETRICAL.

    KATIA APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 305/10 KT. ALTHOUGH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST PERIOD…LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE ON THIS FORECAST RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE ECMWF…UKMET…AND HWRF MODELS REMAIN ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL ARE A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH BY DAY 5. MUCH OF THIS DIFFERENCE APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE CLOSED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN 4-5 DAYS…WHICH THE GFS SHOWS ABOUT 300 N MI FARTHER TO THE EAST AND DEEPER THAN IN THE ECMWF AND UKMET AT DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND STILL KEEPS THE HURRICANE AT OR EAST OF 72W.

    DESPITE THE QUICK STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS…ADT ESTIMATES HAVE LEVELED OFF AT 85 KT…AND IT IS HARD TO TELL IF THE CYCLE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS GOING TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY. THE SHIPS MODEL IS STILL DIAGNOSING ABOUT 15 KT OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER KATIA…BUT THE HURRICANE MAY BE BENEFITING FROM UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW JETS TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE HIGHER RANGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE…FOLLOWING CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. HOWEVER…THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION…AND KATIA COULD STILL STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 04/1500Z 21.9N 59.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 22.9N 60.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 24.1N 62.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 25.2N 64.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 26.2N 65.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 28.0N 68.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 30.0N 71.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 33.0N 72.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

    Like

  5. nickk0 says:

    Kind of interesting, that one of the *possible* projected paths in the illustration above, would send it right at NYC again….

    – Nick

    Like

  6. Dave says:

    At this trajectory it looks like it might hit New York City on September 11? hmmmm. Sounds like a conspiracy already.

    Like

    • The latest models indicate the storm will stay out to sea. There was a lot of uncertainty over this storm– I don’t ever recall one quite so mystic but in the end, it looks like the U.S. coast will be spared from the latest computer modeling.

      Like

      • Dennis E. says:

        Alvin, based on the conduct of Irene and now this one, I will believe it when it passes Newfoundland! Theses storms act as if they have a mind of their own.

        Like

All comments are moderated. We reserve the right not to post any comment deemed defamatory, inappropriate, or spam.

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s