51: Papua NG’s Tavurvur Volcano blows its top in major eruption – ash cloud could endanger aircraft

August 2014 – PAPUA, NG – A major volcanic eruption in Papua New Guinea this morning could disrupt flights to and from Australia. The Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre in Darwin is monitoring the ash cloud from Tavurvur on PNG’s East Britain Island, which is slowly drifting southwest. Senior meteorologist Ian Shepherd said they were watching the cloud closely and providing advice to airlines. “The volcanic eruption reached the top of the atmosphere at 50,000 feet which is the same height as which planes travel,” said Mr. Shepherd. “It’s too early to say at this point if the ash cloud will reach Australia but it was a significant eruption.”

He said the cloud was identifiable on satellite imagery but it was not possible to gauge its size. Ash clouds have played havoc with Australian aircraft in the past with the eruption of a Chilean volcano in 2011 grounding hundreds of flights. Tavurvur, on the tip of New Britain Island in the country’s east, erupted sending lava into the air and causing panic among locals. It has previously erupted in 1937, 1994, 2006 and again last year. The news site PNGloop reports that ash from the volcano is blowing toward the north coast of the island. The site also posted a notice from the Department of Mineral Policy and Geohazards Management that stated the eruption commenced between 3.30am-4am. The eruption involved “incandescent projections and ongoing loud roaring and rumbling noises,” the notice stated. –News

CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forecasters estimate a 40% chance of M-class flares and a 5% chance of X-flares on Aug. 28th. The likely source is sunspot AR2146, which has a ‘beta-gamma-delta’ magnetic field that harbors energy for strong eruptions. The geo-effectiveness of any flares from this region will be mitigated, however, by its off-center location on the solar disk. –Space Weather     

solar watch: Niebo