Weather goes haywire over Europe: scientists baffled by erratic swings of jet stream

December 25, 2012 CLIMATEFrom deadly cold in Russia, floods in Britain and balmy conditions that have residents in southwest France rummaging for their bathing suits, the weather has gone haywire across Europe in the days leading up to Christmas. The mercury in Moscow has fallen to minus 25 degrees Celsius (minus 13 degrees Fahrenheit) — unseasonably cold in a country where such chills don’t normally arrive until January or February. The cold has claimed 90 lives in Russia since mid-December and 83 in Ukraine, with eastern Eurasia in the grips of an unusually icy month that has seen temperatures drop to as low as minus 50 degrees C in eastern Siberia. Another 57 people have died from the cold in Poland this month, and officials say the icy front is probably “the most severe of the last 70 years,” according to Regis Crepet, a forecaster with Meteo-Consult. While the former Eastern bloc shivers and Britain fights severe flooding after heavy rains, holiday-makers and residents in the south of France and in Italy have dug out their shorts and swimwear to welcome an unexpected blast of beach weather. Temperatures on Sunday climbed to 24.3 degrees C in Biarritz on the Atlantic coast, nearly 12 degrees hotter than the seasonal average, and nudging the 1983 record of 24.4 degrees C. “These are remarkable temperatures that we do not see every year,” French weather forecaster Patrick Galois said. In Catania on Italy’s Sicily coast, beach temperatures on Christmas day are forecast to climb as high as 22 degrees C in some places, while in Austria, the small village of Brand at an altitude of more than 1,000 meters (3,200 feet), noted a December 24 record of 17.7 degrees C. Jim Palmer, professor of climate physics at Oxford University, told AFP the weather extremes are explained by the northern hemisphere “jet stream,” a ribbon of air that speeds around the planet high up in the atmosphere. The stream is akin to a length of rope “that you wiggle a bit,” said Palmer — its undulations differing from year to year. This winter the jet stream is particularly wavy, pulling cold air in over Russia from the far north, and bringing hotter air up from the south over France and its neighbors. “The question: Is the waviness and the unusual configuration of the jet stream the result of climate change? We don’t know. The models are probably not quite good enough to tell us,” said Palmer, though there was “some evidence” this may be the case. -TD
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33 Responses to Weather goes haywire over Europe: scientists baffled by erratic swings of jet stream

  1. Dennis E. says:

    I think that the sudden swings of temperature create the opportunity for personal/family illness. I have found that on days normally I would need to wear a long sleeve shirt and jacket, I will opt for a short sleeve, then the weather reverts back and sometimes later I catch a sinus cold or something.
    I also wonder if some reports about the jet stream are weather modification programs in action. Man’s tampering with the weather is a reality. It is a reality that it gives an army a force multiplier in War because if there is one issue that hampers a soldiers ability and morale, let them get pounded with rain,wind and content with mud or on the other hand, extreme heat: I believe it can have the same affect on a civilian population. Some are of the opinion that reports of so-called man’s tampering with the weather has a minor impact and should not even be considered. I believe them to be wrong. Not only has the world been experiencing volatile changes in the weather due to the changes in the earth that are reported on this site, but to top that, man has been/is interfering which adds a “wildcard” to the already ongoing unstable condition. I think it could lead to disastrous unintended results with large loss of life.

    Just my opinion……………….

    I wish each one of you a Merry Christmas and good health in 2013………….
    you too Alvin……………….

    Like

  2. Joseph t. Repas says:

    I know I may sound crude writing this but come on already…These people are freaking idiots! { I only speak like that because they claim to be highly educated!!!!] The jet stream ” waviness ” is as predictable as figuring out the lunar tides because that is what long range forecasters as my self do. The moon and sun configurations has everything to do with the strong undulations of the jet stream. Now on the other hand there is a polar shift as Alvin has correctly reported on and this is concentrating the coldest temperatures over the continental areas of eastern Europe and northern Asia.That means the warmer air that is normally blocked into southern areas now has to stream northward to fill the gap that the denser dry [cold ] air has made so the side of the planet that used to have the polar vortex cover over them which creates cold air by lowering the atmosphere’s height and therefore dryness now has moist air[warm] from the oceans fill the gap. It’s kind of like stirring your coffee really fast in your cup; the center of the coffee dips downward. The spot this happens in the atmosphere is where the coldest weather forms and it does drift around the pole at varying intensities.Earlier this season Alaska had some very cold temperatures but it has retrograded back to Asia. It has nothing to do with man made global warming and is not so much a climate change as a polar shift change. I.E…what this article brings is a common event on an unconventional angle.

    Like

  3. Green Leader says:

    Baffled? They are not baffled at all. It’s true the models are kind of simple, but the wavy jet is easy to explain. Greenman3610 on Youtube (Climate Denial Crock of The Week) and The Yale Climate Forum both demonstrate what’s happening. This is exactly what happened to the USA last March, too…..remember?

    As the Arctic warms, the thermal incline between the Tropic and the Arctic becomes smaller (the temps get closer together). This has the effect of weakening the jet stream. As the jet stream weakens, it tends to form long amplitude troughs and ridges, exactly as shown in this story’s lead graphic. Air to the north of the J.S. is cold, air south of the J.S. is warm. In the new pattern (about 3-4 years now, if you go have a look….it’s the methane, bro) troughs pull the Arctic air very far south, and ridges pull Tropical air very far north. Icy in Phoenix, Short-Shorts in Chicago. Sound familiar?

    This year, we have the additional **natural variation** of Negative Arctic Oscillation, which is their fancy of way of saying the wind is blowing the other direction around the pole. This has the effect of driving the very coldest air down into lower latitudes (like Russia and Europe), while above normal temps take over the Arctic circle, which is exactly what’s happening, with the additional amplification of the weak jet pulling down the cold with greater-than-typical intensity, and freezing out Russia and Europe with record cold.

    You’ve documented these changes exceedingly well, Alvin, which is why I come here all the time! …Ok, and I do love your info about the other Earth Changes. Something may be happening concurrently with our CO2 build up and associated CAGW, but it has become very clear that “instead of” is not an accurate vision.

    I’ll close with: “Welcome To The Rest of Our Lives”
    hxxp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0NrS2L6KcE

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  4. The Gulf Stream Ocean Current was effectively Stopped on or around 6/12/10. This Current used to moderate the planets’ climate by mixing the warm and cold waters of the Atlantic Ocean. One reult of this absence leads to fluctuations in the Jet Stream. Of course we also have the Pole Shifting to take into account and the extreme melting in the Acrtic.

    Like

  5. anonymous says:

    “The question: Is the waviness and the unusual configuration of the jet stream the result of climate change?

    But, you have misstated the question, firstly, of whether climate change is cyclical, secondly, of whether it is manmade.

    Like

  6. Whskey says:

    I don’t believe this has something to do with pole shifting. It’s mostly because of the weaker solar activity and the global warming, causing ice melting, ocean streams changes and jet stream changes.

    Like

  7. niebo says:

    “The question: Is the waviness and the unusual configuration of the jet stream the result of climate change? We don’t know. The models are probably not quite good enough to tell us,” said Palmer, though there was “some evidence” this may be the case.

    I would type an ascerbic response to this statement, but I used my keyboard to smack myself in the forehead, instead.

    Like

  8. Korheg says:

    Enoch said this would happen just prior to the end of the age…

    Like

    • Acushla says:

      The 21st century is the Age of Violence. These are the Days of Noah with Record Breaking Flooding Rainfalls but the Rainbow Promise Holds True which is why the whole Planet Earth is not being flooded at the same time. Global Warming aka Climate Change is not man made, it is the SUN. The Days of Noah will be followed by the Days of LOT when fire and brimstone will fall on Planet Earth. But the Bride will be safe with the Bridegroom.

      Like

  9. Daniel says:

    Tonight, a little dot is aside of the Moon for about 4 hours now. It seems to be “circulating” the Moon. I call out several friends and everybody observed and confirmed the same view; I am taking several pictures… I Checked out the Stellarium but no Star/planet suppose to be so close to the Moon tonight… Heat waves continues…even now, 11 PM Brazil time.

    Like

  10. It’s called GeoEngineering.

    Like

  11. tommytcg says:

    Yet the UK Met Offic knows exactly whats going on as they confidently predict a warmer 2013, due to weather variations and… man made green house gases, of course!!

    Like

  12. Thank you for the first pattern confirmation as we enter into the dark energy rift.
    pipermichael dot wordpress dot com – Something wicked this way comes.

    Like

  13. adolf leo boncavil says:

    why is the picture of the jet stream over america and not europe?

    Like

  14. lannyboy1 says:

    HAARP zapping the ionosphere alters the jetstreams?

    Like

  15. Irene C says:

    The problem with many of these scientists, the so-called experts, is that they don’t think outside of the box. Everything has to be inside their pre-designed box of previous information. Does that mean I know the answer? Definitely not. I graduated as an English major, writing fiction. But, the answer is out there.

    Like

  16. With minimal sunspot activity, the visible evidence of energy fluctuations, the star’s influence is stronger than “normal” and the tail end of the celestial dragon, is the jet stream. It is more vigorous. It also carries more water.

    Like

  17. tonic says:

    Alvin,
    This image appears to show the Jet Stream operating at a frequency. If this is how it behaves then isn’t prediction of its route predictable? In otherwords, the Met office can tell us when the wet spell will end in Britain? Thank you as always for all you do, and hope you had a very peaceful and happy Christmas.

    Like

    • It’s not predictable because the weather is a chaotic phenomena. Reference Edward Lorenz work on the subject:

      “Lorenz built a mathematical model of the way air moves around in the atmosphere. As Lorenz studied weather patterns, he began to realize that they did not always change as predicted. Minute variations in the initial values of variables in his twelve-variable computer weather model (c. 1960) would result in grossly divergent weather patterns. This sensitive dependence on initial conditions came to be known as the butterfly effect (it also meant that weather predictions from more than about a week out are generally fairly inaccurate). Lorenz went on to explore the underlying mathematics and published his conclusions in a seminal work titled Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow, in which he described a relatively simple system of equations that resulted in a very complicated dynamical object now known as the Lorenz attractor.” -Wikipedia

      Lorenz was one of the pioneers of chaos theory

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Norton_Lorenz

      Happy holidays, friend
      Alvin

      Like

      • Joseph t. Repas says:

        He and others did not know how to calculate the moon and sun’s influence on the tides they pull upon the water [ vapor] in the atmosphere. In fact no one has perfectly but it would have helped them to forecast MUCH farther in advance. Happy New Year to all of you!!!!!

        Like

      • tonic says:

        Thank you. Did not know any of this stuff. Bottom line is the weather has no real prediction,
        apart from a few days in advance.
        Chaos seems to be infectious in this time period.

        Like

  18. Eileen Kuch says:

    Professor Palmer has a good point. At least, he has the courage to admit that the strange waves in the jet stream need further investigation before determining the cause, instead of jumping the gun and declaring climate change (global warming) to be the culprit.

    The Earth’s climate is affected by a number of factors: solar activity, volcanism, fluctuations in the emissions of greenhouse gases, etc. The weird weather patterns across Europe – and North America as well – require a good deal of investigation before any specific cause(s) can be determined. This may take some time.

    Like

  19. Scott T says:

    Has scientists baffled? The result is fairly explainable. A friend of mine is an oceanagrapher and scientist in the gulf of Mexico. Two years ago there was an oil spill as everyone must know. It was huge and gushing for quite some time. This spill made the “gulf current” disappear…..this current affects the jet stream, thus pushing it further north and erratic pattern. This will most likely continue for the next 10-20 years until that essential gulf stream ocean current returns to normal. People do not realize how essential these ocean currents are to the ecosystem and when something happens to them, they affect everything. The ocean and its currents have a great effect on the worlds weather patterns, and the gulf current was a major one to disappear, thus the resulting erratic and abnormal weather worldwide.

    Like

  20. MICHAEL says:

    THE WEATHER IS UNBELIEVABLE, STUNNING. WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO??

    Like

  21. I believe its due to the BP oil spill. No Hurricanes in the Gulf this summer. Strange. I think this is also related because the gulf conveyor has been damaged.

    Like

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