Incoming CME from the Sun to glance Earth on May 14th

   
May 12, 2012SPACEIncoming CME (UPDATED): On May 11th at 23:54 UT, a coronal mass ejection raced away from the sun faster than 1000 km/s. The fast-moving cloud will deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field on May 14th around 14:30 UT, according to a revised forecast track prepared by analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab. Mars is also in the line of fire. –Space Weather
contribution Steve
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13 Responses to Incoming CME from the Sun to glance Earth on May 14th

  1. Garth Colin Whelan says:

    What was the magnitude of the CME? It doesn’t say on Spaceweather.com either…

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  2. Jessica says:

    Does anyone know exactly what a “glancing blow” means?

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  3. What exactly does that mean? What will be the results of this?

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    • Steve says:

      Depending how the flare is charged, positive or negative, has an effect on the planets magnetosphere. Also, think of the planet as a microwave oven, and the incoming CME as someone switching it on for a few days. It adversely affects the movement of the plates, what we think is solid land mass(the Earth’s crust) is floating on the under layer (the mantle) and also rising internal core temperatures as a pressure cooker, released through volcanoes.
      It’s a build up effect, no single flare will cause catastrophe.

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  4. yamkin says:

    Update from Yamkin
    Huge Sunspot AR1476 Poses A Threat For Strong Solar Flares On 14th May 2012

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  5. Emanni says:

    New
    iNTEGRATED SPACE WEATHER ANALYSIS SYSTEM

    http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html

    SWA is a flexible, turn-key, Web-based dissemination system for NASA-relevant space weather information that combines forecasts based on the most advanced space weather models with concurrent space environment information. iSWA is customer-configurable and adaptable for use as a powerful decision-making tool. The system offers an unprecedented ability to analyze the present and expected future space weather impacts on NASA’s human and robotic missions.

    Solar
    Heliosphere
    Magnetosphere
    Ionosphere
    Planetary

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  6. yamkin says:

    THIS IS FROM YAMKIN’S ALERT SYSTEM

    *******EXTREME UPDATE******* ****VERY URGENT MAGNETOSPHERE ALERT***** PRESSURE HAS EXTREMELY INCREASED ON MAGNETOSPHERE. FURTHER EARTHQUAKES, VOLCANO ACTIVITY AND OTHER DISASTERS WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY THE COSMIC RAYS STRIKING THE EARTH’S CORE.

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  7. Granny Bear says:

    Yamkin, Please, what is your warning? I don’t understand. What information are we missing?

    245 MHz bursts, geomagnetic K index of 4, are not unusual. Copies of today’s (May 16 9:20 P.M. E.S. USA time zone) reports and one gm K 4 warning follow my post. The reports and warnings are prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. and are available to the public.

    https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov/ This is a link to subscribe for various solar weather products. There are also tutorials , to explain , in lay terms, what (well, some of) it all means.

    https://pss.swpc.noaa.gov/

    ________________________________________________________________
    Radio Events Observed 16 May 2012
    A. 245 MHz Bursts
    Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak Duration
    1823 1823 110 1823 0000
    2313 2314 100 2314 0001
    B. 245 MHz Noise Storms
    Start End Peak Flux Time of Peak
    1152 1218 160 1158
    ________________________________________________________________
    Space Weather Message Code: ALTK04
    Serial Number: 1578
    Issue Time: 2012 May 16 2314 UTC
    ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
    Threshold Reached: 2012 May 16 2313 UTC
    Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
    Active Warning: Yes
    NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at
    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales
    Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
    Induced Currents – Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
    Aurora – Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.
    __________________________________________________________________
    Message flagged Wednesday, May 16, 2012 6:02 PM
    :Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
    :Issued: 2012 May 16 2200 UTC
    # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
    # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
    #Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
    SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2012
    IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z
    to 16/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1476 (N13W73) produced a
    few C-class flares while continuing to decay. Regions 1482 (N13E10)
    and 1484 (N09E38) also produced a few low level C-class events. A
    pair of CMEs associated with apparent filament eruptions were
    observed in LASCO C2/C3, but neither appear to be earth directed.
    IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
    low to low for the next 3 days (17-19 May).
    IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
    The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
    electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the
    period.
    IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: With the exception of an
    isolated unsettled or active period early on day 1 (17 May) from an
    expected solar sector boundary crossing, geomagnetic field
    conditions are expected to be mostly quiet throughout the period
    (17-19 May).
    III. Event Probabilities 17 May-19 May
    Class M 10/10/10
    Class X 01/01/01
    Proton 01/01/01
    PCAF Green
    IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
    Observed 16 May 131
    Predicted 17 May-19 May 130/130/130
    90 Day Mean 16 May 115
    V. Geomagnetic A Indices
    Observed Afr/Ap 15 May 005/005
    Estimated Afr/Ap 16 May 007/008
    Predicted Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May 004/005-004/005-004/005
    VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May-19 May
    A. Middle Latitudes
    Active 10/10/10
    Minor storm 01/01/01
    Major-severe storm 01/01/01
    B. High Latitudes
    Active 15/15/15
    Minor storm 01/01/01
    Major-severe storm 01/01/01
    ________________________________________________________________
    :Product: Solar Region Summary
    :Issued: 2012 May 17 0030 UTC
    # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
    # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
    #
    Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary
    SRS Number 138 Issued at 0030Z on 17 May 2012
    Report compiled from data received at SWO on 16 May
    I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 16/2400Z
    Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type
    1476 N13W73 183 0230 Cao 15 03 Beta
    1477 S21W32 143 0010 Axx 02 01 Alpha
    1478 S22W23 134 0060 Hsx 02 01 Alpha
    1479 N10E01 110 0050 Cso 03 03 Beta
    1481 S10E19 091 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha
    1482 N13E10 101 0130 Cao 06 09 Beta
    1483 S26E13 099 0010 Axx 00 01 Alpha
    1484 N09E38 072 0120 Dao 08 09 Beta
    1485 S20E51 060 0010 Bxo 04 04 Beta
    IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 16/2400Z May
    Nmbr Location Lo
    None
    II. Regions Due to Return 17 May to 19 May
    Nmbr Lat Lo
    1473 S21 005
    1469 S25 344

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  8. Granny Bear says:

    I didn’t get to see any Aurora. Rain, rain. Much needed, and appreciated, rain.

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  9. Granny Bear says:

    THIS ALL RIGHT NOW, but of mostly short duration May 17 12:28 A.M. EST USA

    WARNING: Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
    Valid From: 2012 May 17 0255 UTC
    Valid To: 2012 May 17 2359 UTC
    Warning Condition: Onset
    Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 – Minor
    _________________________________
    SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded M5
    Begin Time: 2012 May 17 0125 UTC
    Maximum Time: 2012 May 17 0147 UTC
    End Time: 2012 May 17 0214 UTC
    X-ray Class: M5.1
    Location: N13W73
    NOAA Scale: R2 – Moderate
    ____________________________________
    Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP2
    Serial Number: 794
    Issue Time: 2012 May 17 0327 UTC
    ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
    Begin Time: 2012 May 17 0131 UTC
    Estimated Velocity: 645 km/s
    ______________________________________
    Space Weather Message Code: ALTTP4
    Serial Number: 370
    Issue Time: 2012 May 17 0327 UTC
    ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
    Begin Time: 2012 May 17 0132 UTC
    ________________________________________
    SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
    Begin Time: 2012 May 17 0129 UTC
    Maximum Time: 2012 May 17 0142 UTC
    End Time: 2012 May 17 0151 UTC
    Duration: 22 minutes
    Peak Flux: 600 sfu
    Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 131 sfu

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  10. yamkin says:

    The CME I forecast to strike the magnetosphere on the 28th May 2012 was on time, but the consequences speaks volumes, hence Italy for example.

    The next CME strike is on the 30th May 2012. The cosmic rays will greatly influence the earth’s core resulting in more earthquakes, volcano activity.

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